ere’s an interesting situation on the market ahead of the elections. A small rally pushed Bitcoin almost to its all-time high (ATH), though it fell short by around $200 on crypto exchanges, even though it reached the mark on CME.🫡
At the same time, we’re seeing ATH in open interest on BTC — over $40 billion. There are already forecasts that the elections will work as a “sell the news” event. Predictions are resurfacing that Bitcoin might drop to $40-45K, and those betting on growth could lose their positions. It even seems obvious, doesn’t it? When so many longs have accumulated, it’s hard to imagine the price continuing to rise, right?
Now, my own thoughts⬇️
1) Regardless of who wins the elections, I believe the market will go up in the long term. The current pause and pullback are due to investor uncertainty right before the elections;📊
2) The longer we stay just below ATH and slowly decline, the less confidence there will be among those betting on growth. Some will start taking profits, while others may see funding gradually eating away at positions that were opened a while ago, as “sideways movement has lasted nearly 250 days.” So even a slight shakeup during the elections could seriously shake people’s confidence;⚖️
3) I have often observed different services showing a huge amount of open longs with liquidation charts where many players were stuck below support, yet Bitcoin’s price never moved to clear those liquidations. ❌
I’m not a prophet, but I’ve tried to explain my perspective from different angles. Soon we’ll see how it actually turns out.🙂
