Donald Trump’s edge over Kamala Harris on Polymarket keeps expanding, and as of press time, Trump holds a lead of more than 30 percentage points over the Vice President. Polymarket bettors currently place Trump with a 65% shot at victory, while Harris’s odds sit at 34.9%. The popular wager, dubbed the “Presidential Election Winner,” has now amassed $2.14 billion in total volume.
Polymarket odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday morning.
Beyond the main election bet, Trump also leads in all six pivotal swing states, which could be essential to clinching a win. In Arizona, he holds a 74% chance, followed by 73% in Georgia, 66% in Nevada, 60% in Pennsylvania, 57% in Wisconsin, and 53% in Michigan. Although Trump’s popular vote odds are rising, Harris still maintains a slight edge.
Harris is currently projected to have a 59% chance of winning the popular vote, with Trump at 41%. In a surprising twist, Polymarket bettors are now predicting a Republican sweep across the executive branch, Senate, and House of Representatives, suggesting potential Republican control over all three government branches.
Likewise, predictit.org metrics display a clear lead for Trump on their predictions marketplace. As of 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Trump holds a 61% chance of winning, while Harris stands at 43%. Kalshi, a regulated U.S.-only platform, similarly reflects a strong Trump lead, with its bettors giving him a 62% likelihood versus Harris’s 38%.
On other platforms, the trend continues: Covers.com currently shows Trump with a 65.2% chance to Harris’s 40%, and betohio.com gives Trump a 66.6% chance, with Harris around 40% as of Sunday morning. The growing bet volume reflects heightened public interest and expectations surrounding the election’s outcome.
With platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi tracking every shift, the odds are tilting in Trump’s favor. Yet, with the outcome far from decided, these predictions serve as speculative snapshots in an unpredictable race. The changing odds underscore how quickly public sentiment can shift, adding suspense as Election Day draws near.
At the same time while betting markets and polls can offer insights, they’re not always right. Case in point: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in betting markets right up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Throughout the race, Clinton maintained a substantial edge over Trump across various prediction and betting sites, both domestically and internationally. In the final weeks, her odds hovered around 80-90% on most platforms.