Has bull run started? Or not?
The previous review noted many bearish signs. Despite this, BTC has grown. Let's try to figure out what is happening now, what could be the reasons for such a stunning pump and what to expect?
S&P 500 Stock Index
Despite the fact that the estimate of the stock index movement was calculated correctly, about the decline of which much has been written in previous reviews, bitcoin is showing strength. It is necessary to pay attention to the statistical data. Over the years, bitcoin has shown growth in only 1.6% of cases for several weeks with the index falling.
📕 The stock index is anchored under the extremely important mark of 4,200. Reduction to 4 060 - 4 100 it will mean that the price has returned to a long sideways trend, and all the growth for this year was only a false takeaway. Moreover, the index will form a "double top" pattern, which has not happened for more than 20 years. If the above range is reached, bitcoin will catch up with the stock index with a probability of more than 98.3%.
Sentimental analysis
The previous review also pointed to an extremely positive sentiment. Uptober as a trend is the expectation of future growth, as well as a lot of positive market analyses from various Telegram channels. Expectations of an early halving. Active expectations for the adoption of a spot bitcoin ETF for two months, a lot of posts about it in the media. It should also be noted the activity of dozens of well-known crypto influencers who sent bitcoin for $100,000 - $1 million in the area of $25,000 - $27,000. And surprisingly, the expectations of the crowd were met, the crowd is allowed to earn. Such "obvious" movements in the market usually do not last long.
📕 What is it now? If the previous time about 6\10 Telegram channels (public and private) wrote about growth, now 8-9\ 10 channels write about medium-term growth. Here are a couple of examples of how they write about the adoption of a spot bitcoin ETF that this is already a "fait accompli", and the altseason is supposedly "guaranteed".
Technical analysis
📕 The asset has been moving for a year in a large ascending channel. The price is still in the zone of great resistance formed in 2021-2022.
📕 A lot of technical indicators on the higher timeframes are overheated. The same RSI on the 3D timeframe. Such bursts lead to side effects lasting at least a month.
Locally, Bitcoin really looks strong. A JOC (Jump Over Creek) pattern has been formed, that is, a breakdown of the semi-annual sideways trend on a serious impulse and an abnormally high volume. If the bears want to seize the initiative, first they need to gain a foothold under the $30,000 mark.
What could be the reason for the growth?
According to CMC (screenshot 2 days ago), the newly created FDUSD trading pair occupies 20-25% of the total Binance volume. At the same time, according to a simple survey, only 2% of people use FDUSD. Stablecoin with zero reporting, launched a month before the pump, and occupying a quarter of the total volume on the top-1 exchange resembles the story of Luna (UST).
📄 In order to confidently assert that the pump is false, it is necessary to gain a foothold under the $30,000 mark. The absorption of growth this week and the exit from the annual ascending channel will be serious arguments in favor of leaving under $20,000 in the perspective of six months.
The temporary uncorrelation of the stock index and bitcoin speaks in favor of the fact that the pump is really false. The aggressive expectation of growth by the crowd even before the pump, now even more so, the active shilling of the history with the ETF (which was still not accepted). Certain concerns are also caused by the new stablecoin, which is supposedly gaining great popularity.