The U.S. is trying to prevent it, but they're losing control.
Analysis of a major conflict and its impact on the market.
Before starting this thread, I want to be clear: everything here is an objective analysis of global conflict and its consequences on the market.
While I have personal opinions, they won’t be discussed here.
We’ll focus only on prices, market impact, and opportunities.
he Middle East holds a central role in global energy, and some countries in this region have the power to cripple the world economy if they choose to.
In 1973, Saudi Arabia's king caused a recession (-50% on the S&P 500) with a simple embargo, driving energy prices up and crashing stock markets.
At the beginning of October, Iran respond to Israel's attack , causing no civilian casualties but significantly damaging Israeli infrastructure (airports, military bases, trains, etc.).
Israel is bound to retaliate with a massive counterattack, potentially triggering a domino effect.
Iran's primary revenue source is oil, accounting for over 40% of its total income.
If Israel strikes back, oil infrastructure will likely be the first target.
You might wonder what this has to do with cryptocurrencies. Keep reading, and you'll see!
While Iran's oil isn't significant enough globally to cause a major market disruption, if it's hit, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, which over 30% of the world’s oil flows.
in this scenario, oil prices will skyrocket.
Oil prices haven’t yet responded to the Middle East conflict, so it's at a local bottom, about 50% below the April 2022 peak.
This is one of the most prominent short squeezes we've ever seen!
Everyone will have to sell off their positions to minimize losses.
Major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will take heavy hits, and the crypto market will be affected as riskier assets are the first to be sold off.
The correlation between U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies has never been stronger.
This is bad news for crypto because U.S. stocks are inversely correlated with energy prices.
When energy prices drop, U.S. stocks rise; when energy prices rise, U.S. stocks fall.
In the long term, the only crypto asset that may stand out is Bitcoin, as it can be used as a store of value and thus could be correlated with gold and energy.
All other crypto assets will remain tied to U.S. stocks and drop if the conflict escalates.
This escalation isn’t just hypothetical; it's highly likely to happen.
All signs point to Israel taking action:
• Iran has given them a reason to strike
• The Biden administration is weak
• Hezbollah is weakened after the death of its leader
• Few Hamas battalions are still operational
• The Houthis are also weakened
However, this situation doesn’t benefit the U.S., as they know the U.S. economy can’t survive without energy.
That’s why they’re the only ones holding Israel back from attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure.
They're even willing to pay Israel not to strike Iran.
On the other hand, they’re also asking Iran to absorb a symbolic strike from Israel without retaliating, to allow Israel to save face.
This request has reportedly been rejected.
It’s amusing to see the U.S. scrambling to protect their economy.
This is the first time in history the U.S. has failed to control Israel.
Israel knows things will be different if Donald Trump comes back into power, so they’re likely to act before the U.S. elections, meaning events could escalate quickly.
War is the greatest tool for wealth transfer, but you must be on the right side.
That’s why I’m buying the dip in energy right now, and when energy prices surge, I’ll buy the dip in $BTC before it’s recognized as a store of value.
#IntroToCopytrading #MarketDownturn #BinanceTurns7 #Bitcoin❗
