At over $60,000, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) provides support for the Bitcoin price; a strong closing below this level would indicate that a collapse is imminent.

According to a BlackRock analysis, Bitcoin has fared better than gold over the long run in times of global unrest.

Bitcoin whales are not likely to sell at this time, according to CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju.

A persistent closure below this level might suggest greater drops ahead; Bitcoin (BTC) trades marginally lower on Thursday, after a 7% decline this week, and hovers around a vital support level. Despite this, evidence from BlackRock shows that Bitcoin actually does better than gold over the long run when geopolitical tensions are high, and CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says that BTC whales aren't going to sell anytime soon.

Over the long run, Bitcoin has outperformed Gold.
At least for the time being, Bitcoin could act like more conventional risk assets. Nevertheless, according to a research released last month by BlackRock, Bitcoin has shown to be more resilient than Gold over the lengthier duration of times of geopolitical stress.

As can be seen from the table below, Bitcoin's returns over the last 10 and 60 days have outperformed both Gold and the US S&P 500 equities index in the face of significant geopolitical events.

And as a result of the most recent fourth Bitcoin halving, the steady-state issuance rate of Bitcoin has dropped to 0.83%, which is lower than Gold's about 2.3%, as reported by Glassnode. The title of most valuable asset has changed for the first time in history.

In light of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, the worldwide financial markets have responded, according to a research released on Wednesday by QCP Capital. Nevertheless, there was very little risk-off movement in TradFi assets. Closed 2% higher were WTI crude oil prices, while the US S&P 500 index ended 1% down.

The cryptocurrency market, according to QCP's research, was more volatile, nevertheless. After falling 4%, Bitcoin found support close to $60,000. If the situation continues to worsen, QCP predicts that bitcoin values might go as low as $55,000.

The market is still keen on risk assets, despite the fact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will take center stage for the time being. The study emphasized that this little setback should not overshadow the overall situation.

A comparison of the economic and policy climates in China and Japan in the 1990s is also revealed in the research. Cut rates, negative interest rates, and the then-novel quantitative easing program were all used by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to fight deflation in Japan.

Asset prices in China are expected to be supported by the recent policies of the People's Bank of China (PBoC), including rate decreases and quantitative easing initiatives. Such optimistic mindset has the ability to spread worldwide and bolster risk assets, such as cryptocurrency.

Furthermore, sentiment data suggests that crypto communities and traders have been searching for war-related subjects more often due to the current confrontations between Iran and Israel. This might be contributing to the rise of FOMO and FUD among crypto market participants.

In a post on X, Ki Young Ju—CEO and creator of on-chain data and analytics firm CryptoQuant—discussed the recent surge in Bitcoin whale activity, explaining that the majority of these holdings are custodial wallets rather than exchange or miner wallets, and that they do not conduct outflows.

In an interview, Young said that "real whales" control the market via over-the-counter and spot trading. This highlights the significance of on-chain data. Older whales haven't earned a ton of money, and newer whales who got in on the current bull run haven't made much either.

Further, he elaborates by saying that new whale wallets—mostly custodial wallets and ETFs—have not made enough money to dump Bitcoin on exchanges just yet; they will wait for ordinary investors to start putting money in before doing so.

Bitcoin prices find a level of support at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Bitcoin's price, which has fallen 8.2% since Sunday, found support on Wednesday at $59,891, which is its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It is little over $60,300 as of Thursday's writing.

On Tuesday, momentum indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossing, indicating that Bitcoin is weakening. The blue MACD line has dipped below the yellow signal line, indicating a sell signal. Also, the fact that the increasing red histogram bars are below the neutral line of zero indicates that the price of Bitcoin may be heading for a decline.

With a closing below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,891, bitcoin may fall 4.6% from its present trading level and retest its $57,493 low on September 18.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin might continue its ascent to retest its next barrier at $66,000 if it climbs and closes over the $62,000 mark.

#BTCReboundsAfterFOMC #GrayscaleRollsOutAaveFund #IranianMissilesPlummetsBTC BTCUptober $BTC