Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged above $55,000 before the U.S. trading session on September 6, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data. However, the price soon reversed, dipping below $54,000 and hitting a new one-month low of $53,806.
BTC was initially targeting $57,000 but retraced after the disappointing August Nonfarm payrolls figures raised concerns about the labor market’s strength.
Source: Michaël van de Poppe Federal Reserve officials speculate on interest rate cuts
A senior Federal Reserve official suggested it might be time to reduce interest rates. New York Fed President John Williams highlighted that the current monetary policy had balanced the economy and reduced inflation. He recommended lowering the federal funds rate target range, with a decision expected on September 18.
New York Fed President John Williams said in a Council on Foreign Relations speech:
The current restrictive stance of monetary policy has effectively restored balance to the economy and brought inflation down. With the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2 percent, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the policy stance by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.
William
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
Estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed nearly equal probabilities for a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point rate cut, at 53% and 47%, respectively.
U.S. dollar strengthens, potentially boosting Bitcoin
At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened by 0.3% at the open, counteracting Bitcoin’s initial reaction to the macroeconomic data. Despite this, trader Daan Crypto Trades observed ongoing dollar weakness. They predicted a possible drop in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) from its current support level of 101, which could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
Trader and analyst, Rekt Capital noted challenging conditions for Bitcoin bulls in the short term. He pointed out a downtrending channel on the 4-hour chart and a developing bullish divergence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose while the price declined, suggesting the potential for a trend reversal if Bitcoin could close above key resistance levels.
