Peter Brandt has provided some perceptive analysis on the current cycle of Bitcoin, which shows a mixed picture for the digital gold. Brandt is known for making precise market forecasts, and his examination of the Bitcoin cycle is no different.

He starts from the previous bear market low in November 2022 and measures Bitcoin cycles differently than most traders. The crucial point, in his opinion, is that this cycle's peak, which started prior to the anticipated halving in March 2024, has not yet been reached.

Surprisingly, after accounting for inflation, the peak from the last bull cycle remains stable. From Brandt's analysis, three key conclusions can be drawn. First, there is a discernible pattern of lower highs and lower lows for Bitcoin. This downward trend implies that the energy required to push Bitcoin to new heights has been absent. 

I measure cycles different than most. My cycle starts at prev. bear market low (Nov '22). Then note high of the cycle starting at prev low prior to halving (Mar '24). Not only has this high not been violated, but high from prev bull cycle on inflation adjusted basis still intact https://t.co/N2kN9pwnT1

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 3, 2024

The second point is that the lows have a continuously decreasing slope. This pattern suggests a continuous lack of buying pressure, or momentum, which may be problematic for investors hoping for an imminent recovery or all-time highs. In closing, Brandt points out that this cycle is different from the others in that it has never taken Bitcoin this long to reach a new all-time high following a halving.

card

Brandt's perspective is consistent with more widespread market concerns. His finding that Bitcoin's cycle is taking longer to recover could be an indication of more serious structural problems, or it could just be a reflection of the macroeconomic climate. A number of variables are influencing the price of Bitcoin, including interest rate inflation and worldwide financial instability.

At the absolute least, a protracted period of consolidation may be indicated by the continuous sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Although some people may still be bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, Brandt's analysis serves as a sobering reminder that there may not be many more highs to come.