Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $59,000 during the ongoing session, reaching a high of $59,764 and registering an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours. However, analysts are worried September could see BTC dip to $45,000, putting it on a path culminating at $40,000.
Bitcoin struggled in August, with suggestions that the price could see a further 5% dip. BTC has traded in the red for six of the last seven September months. Other major cryptocurrencies also registered gains, with Ethereum (ETH) climbing back above $2,500. Solana (SOL) moved back above $130 and is currently trading around the $135 mark, while Dogecoin (DOGE) could look to reclaim the $0.100 price level.
Analysts Warn BTC Could See 20% Dip
Analysts at Bitfinex have warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could dip by as much as 20% because the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision introduces a degree of uncertainty in the market. The prediction was made in a research report published on September 2, with the analysts attributing BTC’s recent 32% surge to speculations surrounding a dovish Fed stance. However, the report also outlined that the anticipated September rate cut could significantly influence BTC’s short-term volatility and long-term trajectory.
“A 25 basis point cut is likely to signal the beginning of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin as liquidity increases and recession fears ease.”
In the event of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, BTC could see an immediate jump in price followed by a correction as concerns around a recession escalate. Market dynamics have shifted over the past week, with spot holders de-risking and perpetual market speculators attempting to buy the dip, which is seen in significant long open interest in BTC perpetuals.
Meanwhile, global crypto investment products have registered $305 million in weekly outflows, according to data from CoinShares. The net outflows of last week are in stark contrast with net inflows worth $543 million seen a week prior. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated,
“The outflows came amid “widespread negative sentiment evident across various providers and regions, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S., which “diminished the likelihood of a 50-basis point interest rate cut. We continue to expect the asset class to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed gets closer to a pivot.”
A Turbulent Month Ahead
Analysts predict that BTC could see a substantial decline following a rate cut, with a potential bottom between $40,000 and $50,000. The forecast is based on historical data showing that percentage return peaks typically dip by 60-70% each cycle, along with a reduction in average bull market corrections. September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, with an average return of -4.78% and peak-to-trough declines of around 24.6%. According to analysts, this volatility and the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction following the rate cut could present traders with opportunities and risks.
BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Multi-Year Low
BTC reserves on exchanges have hit a multi-year low, with crypto exchanges now holding just 2.39 million BTC, significantly lower than the 2020 peak. BTC’s current price sits just under the $59,000 mark, down over 6% in the past week as ETFs see continuous outflows. According to Kristian Haralampiev, Structured Products Lead at Nexo, the drop in BTC prices can be attributed to anxiety surrounding the upcoming release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and its potential impact on the Fed’s monetary policy.
“With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting looming, investors are bracing for new economic data that could significantly influence the Fed’s decisions.”
Some analysts believe BTC is in a consolidation phase and could repeat a bull run and hit a new all-time high.
“Bitcoin – Bull run 2.0 Incoming. The current monthly consolidation on BTC looks a lot like the previous cycle when the price surged all the way to its all-time high.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is clearly in a bearish trend since hitting a peak of over $66,000 on July 29, consistently making lower highs and lower lows, indicating considerable market weakness. While BTC did reach a high of $65,000 on August 23, it has since dipped below $60,000 and the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs, indicating growing bearish sentiment, and has since struggled to reclaim $60,000 or register a positive price movement. BTC dipped below the 20-day SMA last week when it registered a drop of 5.39% and fell to $59,509. Buyers attempted a move back above the moving average and $60,000 on Wednesday but could not do so as sellers took control and pushed BTC down to $59,085.
Source: TradingView
Another attempt to reclaim $60,000 was made on Thursday as BTC reached a high of $61,230. However, buyers lost momentum again, and BTC fell below $60,000 and settled at $59,436 after registering a marginal increase. Bearish pressure increased substantially as the weekend rolled in, with the price dropping to a day low of $57,733 on Friday before recovering and rising to $59,163. Saturday saw yet another marginal drop and a 2.62% drop on Sunday ensured that BTC ended the previous week on a bearish note at $57,399. Thanks to strong demand near the $57,000 price level, BTC started the current week on a positive note, registering an increase of just over 3% to move back above $59,000 and settle at $59,169.
The current session has already seen buyers attempt to push above the 20-day SMA. However, sellers have thwarted the move for now, with the price down marginally, although still above $59,000.
With the moving averages positioned above the current price, market trends hint at growing bearishness, with the MACD also currently bearish. Sellers will continue their efforts to overwhelm the support around $57,000. If this level is breached, BTC could drop to $55,000 or below. BTC must push above the 20-day SMA and the $60,000 price level for any upward price movement.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) has registered an increase of almost 3% over the past 24 hours, although it remains in the red if we look at weekly price movements. The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency has been trading between $2,400 and $2,600 since August 27, when it dipped below the 20-day SMA and settled at $2,458. Thanks to strong buying demand around $2,400, ETH rebounded the following day, pushing back above $2,500 and settling at $2,529. However, buyers lost steam on Thursday after reaching a high of $2,597, with sellers forcing ETH back down to $2,529. Sellers attempted to overwhelm the $2,400 support level on Friday as ETH dropped to a low of $2,437 but buyers could push ETH back above $2,500, and it eventually settled at $2,527.
Source: TradingView
Sellers assumed control over the weekend as ETH dropped by 0.49% on Saturday and 3.44% on Sunday to end the previous week at $2,438, again losing the crucial $2,500 price level. Once again, strong support around the $2,400 level allowed buyers to push ETH up substantially on Monday. As a result, ETH registered a jump of 4.55% to move to $2,539. The current session sees ETH marginally down as sellers attempt to drive the price back below $2,500.
So, where does ETH go from here? With the price losing key support levels and unable to push above resistance levels, ETH is currently stuck between $2,400 and $2,600. If sellers breach the $2,400 level, ETH could dip to $2,200 or $2,100. However, if buyers can keep ETH above $2,500 and engineer a push above $2,600, it would indicate the bears are losing grip. A close above $2,600 could set ETH up for a push toward the crucial $2,850 price level.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) has been extremely bearish since being rejected from the $160 price level on August 24. Since then, it has dipped below the 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs. In fact, SOL spent all of last week in the red, dropping to $142 by Thursday. Sellers attempted to drag SOL below $130 on Friday as the price dipped to a low of $132. However, demand picked up close to $130, allowing SOL to push back to $138. Despite attempts to counter selling pressure, SOL lost the $140 price level, ending Friday with a 1.46% decline.
Source: TradingView
Selling pressure intensified on Saturday and Sunday as SOL registered drops of 1.90% and 5.03% on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. As a result, SOL dipped below the crucial $130 price level to end the weekend at $128. Buyers were always expected to defend this level, and sure enough, SOL recovered as Monday rolled in, registering an increase of 4.98% to reclaim the $130 level and settle at $135. The current session sees SOL marginally down as buyers and sellers attempt to assert influence and dictate price movements. If SOL can maintain its position above $130, bulls will attempt to retake $140 and push to $145-$150. Should SOL reclaim $150, the next resistance level sits at $160.
However, if sellers control the session, SOL could dip back below $130. In such a situation, bears will try to drag the price below $120 and test the $116 support level.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has traded between $0.090 and $0.100 since slipping below the 20-day SMA on Wednesday (August 27). Since then, neither buyers nor sellers have been able to exert influence, with DOGE registering only a marginal increase on Thursday and Friday. Sellers attempted to push DOGE below $0.100 on Friday as the price dropped to a low of $0.097. However, buyers countered the selling pressure and pushed DOGE up by 1.39% to $0.101. Despite DOGE seeing an uptick, buyers lost momentum as the resistance at the 20-day SMA came into play.
Source: TradingView
As a result, DOGE fell by 0.88% on Saturday to close at $0.100. Selling pressure intensified on Sunday as liquidity dried up, resulting in DOGE dropping almost 6%, slipping below $0.100 and settling at $0.095. Buyers returned to the market on Monday, pushing DOGE up by 3.78% to $0.098. The current session sees DOGE up just over 1% as buyers attempt to reclaim $0.100. If buyers fail to reclaim $0.100, it would indicate that sellers have the upper hand. In such a scenario, DOGE could drop to $0.095 or as low as $0.090. However, should DOGE reclaim $0.100, it could push up to the next resistance level at $0.110.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
Polkadot (DOT) has staged an admirable recovery after facing considerable bearish sentiment that dragged its price to a low of $4.04 and opened up the risk of a drop below $4. DOT had been in the red since failing to push above $5 on August 24. As sentiment flipped, DOT dropped below the 20-day SMA at the start of the previous week and slipped below the $4.50 price level by Tuesday. DOT dropped to $4.25 by Thursday after buyers failed to build momentum. Sellers attempted to push DOT below $4 on Friday as the price dipped to a low of $4.10, but with solid support at lower levels, buyers countered the selling pressure, allowing DOT to register a 0.94% increase and settle at $4.29.
Source: TradingView
However, DOT fell back into the red over the weekend, registering a marginal drop on Saturday. Sellers tested DOT’s support level again on Sunday as DOT fell by 4.46% to close at $4.07. Once again, DOT’s support held, and the price rebounded on Monday, rising by 3.44% to $4.21. The current session sees DOT up by 1.43%, trading just below the $4.30 mark. DOT’s jump can be attributed to a surge in buyer interest following Polkadot announcing a partnership with Inter Miami Football Club. The partnership focuses on fan engagement and highlights the potential of Web3 technologies in sports.
Can DOT sustain its upward momentum? If buyers can push DOT back above the 20-day SMA, it means bulls are gaining momentum. In such a scenario, DOT could resume its push toward $5. DOT has strong support around the $4 level, which has already been tested twice, demonstrating that sellers are losing steam at lower levels.
Uniswap (UNI) Price Analysis
Uniswap (UNI) dipped below the 20-day SMA on August 27 when it went below $6 and settled at $5.71. Since then, UNI steadily pushed back towards $6, reaching $5.90 by Friday despite sellers attempting to drag the price towards the $5.50 support level. Buyers retained control on Saturday and tried to push above $6 once more, reaching a day high of $0.09. However, buyers lost momentum, allowing sellers to push UNI back below $6 to $5.94, with the price only registering a marginal increase.
Source: TradingView
UNI fell into the red on Sunday as sellers took control, driving the price down by 5.55% to $5.61. Once again, sellers lost momentum at lower levels, allowing buyers to mount a recovery on Monday. As a result, UNI registered a significant jump of almost 9%, allowing it to break above $6 and settle at $6.11. The current session sees UNI up by 1.29% as buyers attempt to push the price above the 20-day SMA.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) has continued to drop since failing to push above $0.40 on August 24, losing key support levels. Buyers attempted to counter the selling pressure after ADA slipped below the moving average, attempting a recovery on Wednesday, as seen in the price chart. However, sellers pushed the price back down from a day high of $0.361 to $0.35. ADA registered a 2.29% increase on Thursday to move above the 20-day SMA and settle at $0.358. Sellers thwarted attempts to push higher.
Source: TradingView
Bearish sentiment returned on Friday after ADA dropped by just over 3%, slipping back below the 20-day SMA and settling at $0.347. ADA remained in the red over the weekend, registering a marginal drop on Saturday and an almost 4% drop on Sunday to slip to $0.332, going below a crucial support level. The current week began with a 1.20% increase, but the price has fallen back into the red during the ongoing session and is currently down by almost 2.50%, trading at $0.328.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
