The analyst Cryptonary has published a forecast that sees a possible peak of the price of Bitcoin well above 200k USD.
The forecast of Bitcoin price at 200k USD
As usual, when the price of Bitcoin goes through a phase of recovery, positive predictions abound.
This forecast was published yesterday by Cryptonary on its X profile.
Historically, the end of Miner Capitulation periods following Bitcoin Halvings has led to significant price increases for Bitcoin in the subsequent months and year.
The Hash Ribbon metric suggests that Bitcoin bottoms out when miners capitulate due to high mining costs and/or… pic.twitter.com/6CiDVyKM7i
— Cryptonary (@cryptonary) July 17, 2024
This is a forecast based on a historical model, which analyzes the past to project it into the future.
Cryptonary reminds that, historically, the end of the miner capitulation period after the halvings has led to significant price increases for Bitcoin in the following months and years.
In other words, the halving of the rate of creation of new BTC never manages to have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin, reducing the supply, in a short time.
In fact, although the creation of new BTC is halved right from the start, the halving in the short term actually forces the miner to sell large quantities of previously mined and accumulated BTC on the market.
Only when such sales of previously mined BTC are finished, the supply on the market can really start to decrease.
The previous cycles
Cryptonary has accompanied this forecast with a chart that shows the last three halving (excluding the one from 2012) in orange, and the end of the miner capitulation period in violet.
It is worth noting that such capitulation in 2016 and 2020 occurred only a few months after the halving, while in this 2024 it lasted a bit longer. On the other hand, however, this 2024 is unusual, given that never before had a new all-time high of the BTC price been recorded shortly before a halving.
According to Cryptonary’s calculations, in 2012 after the capitulation of the miners, the price of Bitcoin began a rise that saw it make an incredible +5,110.6%.
In 2016 the post-capitulation rise was 3,346.5%, while in 2020 it was limited to 591.75%.
At this point, using this data series as a starting point, and assuming that the current miner capitulation ends soon, from the current approximately 64,700 USD the analyst calculates that with an exponential decay model the price of Bitcoin could reach a potential peak of 223,000 USD during the current cycle.
Cryptonary however adds that it considers 223,000 USD an “optimistic” peak, but that it is still a noteworthy model.
Forecast or projection? Can the price of Bitcoin exceed 200k USD?
The analyst actually does not specify whether this should be considered a forecast in all respects, or only a projection, however it seems more correct to consider it only a projection.
Many often struggle to understand it, but forecast and projection are two distinctly different things.
In fact, a projection is limited to identifying a clear and specific trend from the past, and imagining what could theoretically happen in the future if this trend were to continue.
In other words, it does not take into account a very important thing at all, namely what the real probabilities are that this will happen.
A forecast, on the other hand, to be such must imagine and suggest a future hypothesis considered probable.
It is precisely a matter of probability, something that is too often erroneously ignored.
For example, if a hypothesis had only a 10% chance of occurring, it could not be considered a forecast at all, also because it would even have a 90% chance of being wrong.
With forecast, only those hypotheses that have more than a 50% chance of being correct should be considered, otherwise, they are just improbable hypotheses.
in this case Cryptonary does not state what it believes the probabilities are that this hypothesis will come true, therefore it should not be considered a forecast unless Cryptonary itself states that it believes it to be likely.
It should therefore be considered only a projection, the probabilities of which are unknown.
The other forecasts
There are however also several other forecasts that are circulating.
They can be divided into three groups: those in the short term, those in the medium term, and those in the long term.
In particular, with regard to the current cycle of Bitcoin, the interesting ones are those in the medium and medium/long term.
In the medium term, the hypothesis circulating is that it will be difficult to exceed $100,000 by the end of 2024. However, many believe it is likely that, as has always happened in the past during bullish years, the annual highs will be recorded between October and December.
Given that the current maximum price of Bitcoin in 2024, which is also its all-time high, is slightly below 74,000 USD, it is expected that in autumn a peak of 75,000 USD, or perhaps even above 80,000 USD, could be recorded.
However, the medium/long-term forecasts are even more interesting, particularly regarding next year.
What to expect from 2025
Historically, the three major bull runs of Bitcoin (2013, 2017, and 2021) have always occurred the year following the one in which the halving took place (2012, 2016, and 2020).
It is possible that this dynamic has to do with the presidential elections in the USA, which occurred in the years of the halving, because generally the dollar strengthens before the elections, and then for about a year weakens after they have occurred.
One might therefore expect a path of decline – perhaps slight – of the US dollar that could start at the end of the year and last until the end of the next. The price of Bitcoin could react to this decline with a further increase in value.
According to several analysts, this dynamic could lead the price of BTC during 2025 to a peak above 100,000 USD, or perhaps even 150,000 USD.
There is no widespread consensus on these figures, but many analysts agree with Cryptonary that as soon as the capitulation of the miners ends, the price of Bitcoin could start to rise again thanks to the long-term effects of the April halving.
