According to Odaily, the rise in US Treasury bonds and a decrease in yield, coupled with mixed data from the labor market, have led traders to maintain their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve officials this year. Despite the non-farm payroll report for June showing higher than expected job growth, data from previous months was revised downwards and the unemployment rate increased. This has further strengthened traders' bets on a rate cut in the derivatives market, with the probability of two rate cuts this year once again reaching 100%. It is currently believed that the earliest the Federal Reserve could cut rates is in September, with a probability of around 76%.
Jeff Klingelhofer, co-head of investment at Thornburg Investment Management, stated, 'I believe there is still room for US bonds to rise. Looking at Powell's recent stance, he has a strong tendency to start a mild easing cycle. The labor market is returning to a better balance, inflation faces downside risks, and the economy may slide into recession.' Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock, stated, 'To solidify expectations for a rate cut in September, another round of data support is needed. More importantly, next week's inflation data and next month's numbers.'