According to CoinDesk, the U.S. job market demonstrated resilience in June, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing the creation of 206,000 jobs. This figure is a slight decrease from May's revised 218,000 jobs but still surpasses economists' predictions of 190,000. The unemployment rate for June was slightly higher at 4.1% compared to May's 4.0% and the forecasted 4.0%.
Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, aligning with forecasts and compared to May's 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, this metric was up by 3.9%, matching expectations and compared to the previous month's 4.1%. The price of bitcoin dipped slightly to $55,300 following the news, but this decrease is negligible considering the approximately 10% drop over the past 48 hours due to the influx of supply from Mt. Gox repayments and German government sales.
Prior to the release of this data, traders had almost no expectation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut at the bank's July 31 meeting. However, there was more than a 70% chance of lower rates at the mid-September meeting, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a dovish stance, suggesting that a weaker job market might outweigh inflation concerns as the central bank determines its future monetary policy.
Despite the headline figure of 206,000 jobs exceeding forecasts, other data indicates some weakness. May's job gain was revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, and April's initially reported job gain of 165,000 was revised down to 108,000. When considering the three months together, the average job gain stands at 177,000, compared to 249,000 for the previous quarter.
Furthermore, although the unemployment rate only rose slightly, the 4.1% figure is the highest since November 2021. A review of traditional markets shows U.S. stock index futures slightly increasing following the report, with the 10-year Treasury yield down five basis points to 4.31%.