Bitcoin will go higher than 150k in this Bullrun according to history.
If we take a look to the BTC chart from the very beginning, we'll see that every halving will shoot the price up by significant amount percentage. But there's more to that! Let's examine the data from the very beginning.
First halving Nov 28, 2012
Mining reward reduced from 50 BTC => 25 BTC
Halving day price $12/BTC
Peak cycle $1,175/BTC on Dec 4, 2013
Halving till Peak, 1 Year 1 Mos
Increased by 9,550%!!!
2nd Halving, July 9, 2016
Mining reward cut 25 BTC => 12.5 BTC
Halving day price $648/BTC
Peak cycle $19,891/BTC on Dec 17, 2017
Halving till Peak, 1 Year 5 Mos
Up by 3,069%!!!
3rd Halving, May 11, 2020
Reward slashed from 12.5 BTC => 6.25 BTC
Halving day price $8,560/BTC
Peak cycle $68,958 on Nov 21, 2021
Halving till Peak, 1 Year 6 Mos
Increased by 805%
4th Halving expected on April 19th, 2024.
Reward will be halved to 3.25 per Block.
Expectation to peak price approx 1 year 3 mos
What we know so far based on data,
Price increase in BTC:
9,550% => 3,069% => 805% => ???
1st to 2nd halving ratio 3.11
2nd to 3rd halving ratio 3.8
Averaged in 3.455 with 10% deviation.
Which mean if we use the average, we can expect around 805%/3.455 = 232% increase in BTC price. Also, we're going to assume that BTC price is already priced in in every market situation.
If BTC stays around 75k in Halving, we can expect that BTC will peak at $150k~$180k level. When will this expectation come to fruition? Let's take a good look at the data again, after halving we'll have at least 1 year and few months to accumulate. Which mean expect retracement and volatility in the market post halving.
Multiple factor that supports this hypothesis:
Institution care about cryptocurrency 🔥
Massive tokenization 🔥
Retail Hype
CBDC 🔥
Economics law of supply and demand.
Increasing Market Cap
Don't FOMO guys! But don't miss the train!
Be safe, Godspeed.
#MiaCAnalyst #MOUZEAnalyst.