Trump Surges Past Harris on Polymarket’s Prediction Platform
The race for the White House is heating up, and according to the latest Polymarket prediction odds, Donald Trump has taken a surprising lead over Kamala Harris, pulling ahead by 13%. This marks the largest margin since Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in late July, reshaping the dynamics of the election.
After weeks of intense back-and-forth in August—where Harris seemed to gain momentum with celebrity endorsements, including support from Taylor Swift—Trump regained his footing in mid-September.
October brought more twists, with Trump hosting a high-energy rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the same location where he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in July. Billionaire Elon Musk made a surprise appearance at the rally, energizing supporters with his presence and delivering a strong show of support for Trump. Musk later took to social media platform X to highlight the reliability of Polymarket’s prediction odds, arguing that the betting market is more accurate than traditional media polls since participants are wagering real money.
The prediction market on Polymarket has seen explosive growth, with total wagers exceeding $1.6 billion—a staggering $600 million added in just the past three weeks. One high-profile investor, known by the pseudonym Fredi9999, has doubled down on Trump’s victory by purchasing an additional 7 million shares, raising their total investment to $7.8 million. This bold move is already paying off, with their current profits nearing half a million dollars.
With these unexpected developments, the U.S. presidential race has become even more unpredictable. As the election nears, the excitement is only building, promising more surprises in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned for what could be one of the most thrilling finishes in modern political history.

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Topline The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat just over two weeks before the election, according to a string of surveys that largely show Harris with a narrow national advantage over Trump—though the key swing states are virtually tied.
Key Facts
Harris led Trump by just one point—49%-48%—in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters published Friday, after Harris posted two-point leads in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Trump regained a lead over Harris in a Fox News poll released Wednesday that found him up 50%-48% among likely voters—a change from Harris’ 50%-48% edge in September, after Trump led her 50%-49% in August.
Harris leads in two other surveys published Wednesday: She has a five-point advantage (52%-47%) in a Marist College poll of likely voters, up from Harris’ two-point edge in the closely watched pollster’s September survey, and a four-point (49%-45%) lead in an Economist/YouGov likely voter poll, equal to Harris’ lead last week.

Harris leads Trump 50%-46% in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, down from a 51%-45% lead in its two previous polls, and she has a 47%-44% edge in a new Ipsos/Reuters poll.

Several other surveys show tighter margins: Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.
Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Oct. 13, while an ABC/Ipsos poll released the same day shows Harris with a two-point (50%-48%) advantage among likely voters, within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error—a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris with a roughly five-point lead last month.

A third poll out Oct. 13 from CBS/YouGov showed Harris leading Trump 51%-48% with likely voters—slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month—while Harris has a narrower 50%-49% edge in the seven battleground states.
Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll out Oct. 8, the first time she’s led Trump in the groups’ polling since July.

Three other polls over the past month—a Quinnipiac survey released Sept. 24 and a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 24—showed Trump and Harris tied.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Who Is Favored To Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?
Trump is favored to win 52 times out of 100, compared to 48 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Trump’s odds at 53.1/46.6, writing he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”
Big Number
0.9. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up 1.7 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages. That means Trump would narrowly win if the state-level polling proves to be exactly right—but all seven swing states are within single digits.
Surprising Fact
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

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According to the latest and final 2024 election forecast, Donald Trump is projected to secure victory with a significant lead. The anticipated electoral college breakdown shows:
🔴 Trump: 312 Votes
🔵 Harris: 226 Votes

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