FET Price Analysis – Long-Term Elliott Wave Update
Fetch.ai (FET) is currently navigating a complex Elliott Wave structure, with two major scenarios in play:
1. Bullish Scenario (White Count)
We're tracking a large A-B-C structure where the market is currently within the C wave. Waves 1, 2, and 3 have likely completed, but Wave 4 remains unsettled and is deeper than expected, challenging the reliability of this count. Although it's not invalidated yet, confidence is low due to:
Wave 3 only reaching 123.6% Fibonacci extension (shorter than ideal 138%).
Wave 4 breaking below the 61.8% retracement (critical support at $0.53).
Invalidation Point: A break below $0.168 (Wave 2 low) would completely invalidate the white bullish count.
Target (if valid): Potential rally toward $6.22 in a 5th wave, but bulls must act fast.
2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Count)
In this alternate view, the B wave never ended and the recent rally was a B wave overshoot. The current move down could be a five-wave C wave decline, possibly taking FET to $0.10, $0.07 or even $0.03 before forming a longer-term bottom.
This scenario aligns more with current market structure, as the last upward move lacked the strength of a typical Wave 3.
Key Takeaways:
Trend remains bearish.
White bullish count is technically valid but untrustworthy.
A micro 5-wave reversal from recent lows could indicate the start of Wave 5 toward $6.22 – wait for confirmation on lower timeframes.
Summary:
Until clear bullish structure forms, patience is key. FET remains under pressure and a decisive break of $0.168 would shift the bias firmly bearish.
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