The cryptocurrency market is key now, with signs of the downside phase of a correction already being seen and progressively weakening momentum afterward.
What’s notable is the lack of movement from Binance Futures whales, typically considered market influencers during major market phases.
The absence of intervention has led to considerable doubt over the capacity for a near-term recovery and has left markets questioning.
Whales Remain on the Sidelines
Historically, Binance futures whales have always been critical in stabilizing market corrections when those corrections are at the bottom of a downward cycle.
For the most part, 2 major patterns characterize their actions, namely the Purple Box and Green Box patterns.
These patterns have given us valuable insights into whale activity and are precursors to market reversals.
Sharp market declines induce the Purple Box pattern, as whales absorb liquidity, which creates a sharp and rapid increase in the market buy ratio.
This pattern shows that a large market player is entering to negate selling pressure, often bringing a bounce.
At the same time, the Green Box pattern is observed over a relatively prolonged period of sideways movement.
Whales here slowly pile into our positions, as you can tell from the steady upward trend in MBR.
This is an accumulation phase before a breakout, and the large investors grow in confidence, accumulating more.
In the previous price correction moving the market to 89k, neither of the Purple Box or the Green Box patterns could be seen.
But the fact that whales have not intervened here appears a marked departure from past market behavior, leaving traders and analysts baffled about the new market dynamics.
Momentum Weakens Amid Growing Sell Pressure
A further urgent point is the market losing momentum. This trend is visualized in the attached chart, which focuses on the important stablecoin exchange net flows.
In the chart, the yellow histogram is the 36-hour moving average of stablecoin net flows to exchanges. We are seeing a recent uptick in these inflows, which hints at more selling.
Traders use stablecoins as a medium to move funds onto an exchange to be sold. This rise in netflows of stablecoins generally coincides with increased sell pressure on the market.
While whales historically overcame such pressures, their absence today has exposed the market without indicating that a reversal will occur.
In stark contrast, the whale behaviors are observed, and a comparison to the market structure seen in January is done.
When the price broke down last January, they were actively involved, removing some liquidity and stabilizing the market.
Their participation at that juncture was critical to allowing the recovery to take hold and provide a base for upward acceleration.
In the current situation, there is a deafening silence on their part, signaling a lack of belief in the near-term market outlook.
No Signs of Recovery
In the absence of whale intervention, its trajectory remains precarious. The absence of the Purple Box and Green Box patterns indicates that these major players are not convinced. And as such, the market is left to its own devices.
Adding to the picture of uncertainty, momentum is weakening, making it unlikely that any recovery will be swift.
It also shows the difficulty buyers are having in getting their momentum back to the upside. Nevertheless, the differences are notable, as some comparisons to that structure from last January have been made.
Unlike the current phase, the correction’s characteristic was to include clear traces of whale actions so the market would remain stable and prepare for a rebound.
Lacking activity of this sort, the market may need more time in a corrective phase.
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