The Chinese economy is weak, and the bears of RMB continue to stay strong😪

In China, any excitement over the surprise lending facility rate cut (2.65% --> 2.50%) was quickly erased by yet another set of very weak activity figures in retail sales and industrial production. The National Bureau of Statistics also announced that they would stop publishing youth jobless data as statistics need to be further 'improved and optimized', naturally raising concerns about the depth of weakness in the local labour markets. Furthermore, with a lot of core economic rebalancing concerns still unaddressed, both A-shares and HSI were unable to react positively to the rate cut, and CNH FX took the brunt of the hit as the spot has currently traded up to a high of 7.3359, and within shouting distance of the 10y high.

Unlike the move earlier in the year, the current weakness in spot is joined by a concurrent spike in FX forward points and upside option skew as hedge funds are piling into CNY shorts in every expression they can find. CNY FX derivatives and options were once again the most actively traded global FX pair yesterday, with volumes 3x above average again. Meanwhile, 1m forward CNH Points have spiked close back to YTD highs, with implied yields at 1yr highs at 3.40% as the bearish trade is building momentum.

#CNH #current #CNY #YTD #volume

#CNY 🐉 good news may be due to the adoption of early CBDC adoption?

The U.S. market is quiet, with expectations of interest rate hikes building up🧐

Yesterday was a completely non-event day for US markets without any data or event of note. Treasury yields continued to grind higher and 10y yields tested the post NFP highs of ~4.20%. Fed pricing remains at <10% chance of a hike in September, and creeping up to just 30% by November before topping out.

Equities bounced marginally after a tough week last week, led by a rebound in tech stocks which were battered last week. Volumes were down substantially across the most asset classes with the exception of USDCNY FX.

#USmarket #interestrates #NFP #USD #CNY

BoC intervenes strongly in the foreign exchange market, Hong Kong stocks rebounded due to inflow of funds👀

Over in China, the PBoC has been intervening in FX markets, with the CNY seeing the 2nd strongest fix versus Bloomberg survey on record (with ~918 pips to the strong side), squeezing out some late USDCNH longs as spot CNH squeezed from 7.35 down to 7.28 as of the time of writing. Furthermore, the PBoC published its 23Q2 Monetary Policy Report yesterday, in the midst of the recent rapid RMB depreciation. Outside of the consistent rhetoric with the Politburo's earlier guidance to "enhance the magnitude of macro policy adjustment", the MPR also explicitly mentioned to "firmly prevent exchange rate overshooting risks" (堅決防範匯率超調風險) as an official guideline for the very first time. Finally, official and state-supported buying in Chinese stocks / H-shares was also evident yesterday, with significant southbound flows recorded in the HK-Connect yesterday, and HSI rebounding from a ~2% sell-off intraday to close flattish versus the previous session.

#FXmarket #CNY #HongKong #USDCNH #MPR

From the results of today's event, the results are bad for usd.
What do you think?

#Binance #USD #GBP #CNY #dyor

China's expansion of the iPhone ban causes its market value to shrink🤔

Equity sentiment remained poor with USDCNY continuing to break to the highest (CNY weakest) levels since 2007, while the government further expanded their iPhone ban to include more agencies, knocking off $200bln in Apple’s market value just ahead of the iPhone 15 release next week. Bank of America estimates that China accounts for ~50mm in annual iPhone sales per year, with this ban costing between 10–20% of their unit shipments. Prior to the China crackdown, Apple was on course to become the world’s biggest smartphone maker by volume for the first time, but it appears that milestone would have to wait in the current environment.

#crypto2023 #bitcoin #CNY #Apple #China

China's economic pressure is intensifying, with the exchange rate approaching last year's high😿

The relentless onslaught of bearish China news continued unabated, with Zhongrong International Trust threatening to miss a US$19mm wealth-management payment over the weekend due to liquidity concerns. Coupled with the earlier Country Garden concerns, along with the significant weakening in Chinese data, FX traders have ratcheted up their expectations of further weakening in the months ahead, with reported spot and option volumes (>7.30 strikes) coming in over >3x higher than normal on an otherwise extremely slow day in macro. Spot USDCNY has touched above 7.25, with last October's highs (7.32) now clearly at risk, just ahead of a further set of activity data (retail sales, IP) and the 1-year lending rate to be released this morning.

#ChinaEconomy #liquidity #FXtrader #USD #CNY

USD's Two-Month Rally: Central Bank Jawboning and Technical Resistance on the Horizon😯

The diverging monetary policy outlook has led to a large rally in the USD over the past 2 months, where the dollar is now bumping against strong technical resistance for a short-term reversal. The JPY and CNY have been the main laggards against the Greenback over this move, with Central Bankers resorting to verbal jawboning and intervention threats as a short-term tactic to stall the one-sided moves.

*KANDA: WATCHING FOREX WITH HIGH LEVEL OF URGENCY

*JAPAN’S KANDA: KEEPING CLOSE CONTACT WITH US TREASURY

*KANDA: US AND JAPAN SHARE VIEWS REGARDING EXCESSIVE MOVES

#JPY #CNY #USD #Japan #US

#DXY Expect The Unexpected Deal in #CNY ?High Impact Fundamental Event/News

Chinese #Cryptos #NEO 🚀