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A series of strong employment data😳
An unhelpful spate of healthy labour data (Challenger job layoffs recovered to a -8.2% YoY drop, versus -25.2% YoY in June, 4-week initial claims average down to 228.25k from 233.75k, blowout ADP from Wednesday) was met with an unexpected rise in the ISM services price index, where price gains rose the most in 2 years after nearly 16-months of uninterrupted drops.
#Employment #Labour #Challenger #ADP #ISM
An unhelpful spate of healthy labour data (Challenger job layoffs recovered to a -8.2% YoY drop, versus -25.2% YoY in June, 4-week initial claims average down to 228.25k from 233.75k, blowout ADP from Wednesday) was met with an unexpected rise in the ISM services price index, where price gains rose the most in 2 years after nearly 16-months of uninterrupted drops.
#Employment #Labour #Challenger #ADP #ISM
📌 What's special about this week's macro?
📢 This week's #macro event will revolve around the Non-farm News Feed, please take note to note!
📌 August 21st: #US ISM Manufacturing PMI
📌 August 21st: JOLTS Employment Data
📌 7:15 am 2/8: #ADP Non-Farm
📌 7:30 p.m. August 3: US jobless claims
📌 9pm August 3: US ISM Services PMI
📌 19:30 4/8: Non-farm message board
#Federal #bitcoin $BTC $ETH $XRP
♂️ To understand what these indicators mean, please read this article 👇
📢 This week's #macro event will revolve around the Non-farm News Feed, please take note to note!
📌 August 21st: #US ISM Manufacturing PMI
📌 August 21st: JOLTS Employment Data
📌 7:15 am 2/8: #ADP Non-Farm
📌 7:30 p.m. August 3: US jobless claims
📌 9pm August 3: US ISM Services PMI
📌 19:30 4/8: Non-farm message board
#Federal #bitcoin $BTC $ETH $XRP
♂️ To understand what these indicators mean, please read this article 👇
LIVEMuhammad Mahdi
--
The most important macro events this week 🚨
📌 After the Fed's interest rate hike in July, investors are very interested in the Fed's actions in the September meeting. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome #Powell affirmed that the next interest rate result will depend on data. #macro .
➡️ Therefore, from now until then, there will be many important macro events that will affect the upcoming Fed's interest rate decision.
➡️ There will be many important macro events this week, please pay attention:
➡️ August 21st: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
➡️ August 21st: JOLTS Employment Data
➡️ 7:15 am 2/8: ADP Non-Farm
➡️ 7:30 p.m. August 3: US jobless claims
➡️ 9pm August 3: US ISM Services PMI
➡️19:30 4/8: Non-farm message board
📌 Non-farm message board
Time: 19:30 4/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: High
Forecast: 200K – Last installment: 209K
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ From now until the next #FEDs interest rate meeting, the first important macro data to be released will be the Non-farm News Feed.
➡️ The Nonfarm Payroll (#NFP ) is a monthly statistical report published by the United States Department of Labor that measures the number of new jobs created outside of agriculture during the previous month in the United States. The NFP is an important indicator of the labor market and economic health of the United States.
The NFP feed includes 3 main indicators: new job creation, unemployment rate and average hourly wages.
➡️ If the Non-farm News Feed shows a weaker-than-expected or lower-than-expected employment situation, this could dampen confidence in the economy and push down the value of the dollar. This can increase the value of the Crypto array.
➡️ Currently, it is not clear whether Non-farm will be lower or higher than forecast, if you want data to infer, you will have to wait for the following data.
📌 Non-farm News Feed Forecast Dataset
📍 JOLTS . employment data
Time: August 21st
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 9.61M – Last wave: 9.82M
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ JOLTS Job Openings is a report on the number of jobs currently opening by the #US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This report is released monthly to measure the number of vacancies nationwide.
➡️ The fact that this index is lower than forecast increases the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 ADP Non-farm
Time: 19h15 2/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 223K – Previous installment: 221K
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ ADP Non-farm is a monthly report of economic data, which tracks and shows the level of private non-farm employment in the United States (USA). This index is published by a private organization called Automatic Data Processing.
➡️ The fact that this index is lower than forecast will also increase the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 US unemployment claims
Time: On August 3
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 223K – Previous installment: 221K
Higher than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ This is an index that measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the past week. Unlike the above two indicators, if the number of US jobless claims is higher than expected, it will increase the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 PMI . indicator set
➡️ The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index that measures the health of a country's manufacturing and service industries, based on information collected from purchasing managers in different industries. manufacturing and service companies.
➡️ If the PMI is below 50 or the result is lower than forecast, it indicates a recession in the economy, a falling labor market, the Fed may cut interest rates and the dollar will depreciate. This will cause the crypto market to grow.
➡️ Besides Non-farm news, PMI also has a macro influence, although usually these indicators do not have too much influence on Crypto market prices in the short term.
This week PMI will have the following two indicators.
📌 ISM Manufacturing PMI
Time: August 21st (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 46.9 – Last wave: 46.0
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
📌 ISM Services PMI
Time: 21h 3/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 53 – Last wave: 53.9
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
➡️ Therefore, from now until then, there will be many important macro events that will affect the upcoming Fed's interest rate decision.
➡️ There will be many important macro events this week, please pay attention:
➡️ August 21st: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
➡️ August 21st: JOLTS Employment Data
➡️ 7:15 am 2/8: ADP Non-Farm
➡️ 7:30 p.m. August 3: US jobless claims
➡️ 9pm August 3: US ISM Services PMI
➡️19:30 4/8: Non-farm message board
📌 Non-farm message board
Time: 19:30 4/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: High
Forecast: 200K – Last installment: 209K
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ From now until the next #FEDs interest rate meeting, the first important macro data to be released will be the Non-farm News Feed.
➡️ The Nonfarm Payroll (#NFP ) is a monthly statistical report published by the United States Department of Labor that measures the number of new jobs created outside of agriculture during the previous month in the United States. The NFP is an important indicator of the labor market and economic health of the United States.
The NFP feed includes 3 main indicators: new job creation, unemployment rate and average hourly wages.
➡️ If the Non-farm News Feed shows a weaker-than-expected or lower-than-expected employment situation, this could dampen confidence in the economy and push down the value of the dollar. This can increase the value of the Crypto array.
➡️ Currently, it is not clear whether Non-farm will be lower or higher than forecast, if you want data to infer, you will have to wait for the following data.
📌 Non-farm News Feed Forecast Dataset
📍 JOLTS . employment data
Time: August 21st
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 9.61M – Last wave: 9.82M
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ JOLTS Job Openings is a report on the number of jobs currently opening by the #US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This report is released monthly to measure the number of vacancies nationwide.
➡️ The fact that this index is lower than forecast increases the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 ADP Non-farm
Time: 19h15 2/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 223K – Previous installment: 221K
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ ADP Non-farm is a monthly report of economic data, which tracks and shows the level of private non-farm employment in the United States (USA). This index is published by a private organization called Automatic Data Processing.
➡️ The fact that this index is lower than forecast will also increase the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 US unemployment claims
Time: On August 3
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 223K – Previous installment: 221K
Higher than forecast is good for Crypto.
➡️ This is an index that measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the past week. Unlike the above two indicators, if the number of US jobless claims is higher than expected, it will increase the probability that the Non-farm News Feed will be lower than forecast.
📌 PMI . indicator set
➡️ The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index that measures the health of a country's manufacturing and service industries, based on information collected from purchasing managers in different industries. manufacturing and service companies.
➡️ If the PMI is below 50 or the result is lower than forecast, it indicates a recession in the economy, a falling labor market, the Fed may cut interest rates and the dollar will depreciate. This will cause the crypto market to grow.
➡️ Besides Non-farm news, PMI also has a macro influence, although usually these indicators do not have too much influence on Crypto market prices in the short term.
This week PMI will have the following two indicators.
📌 ISM Manufacturing PMI
Time: August 21st (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 46.9 – Last wave: 46.0
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
📌 ISM Services PMI
Time: 21h 3/8 (Vietnam time)
Influence level: Medium
Forecast: 53 – Last wave: 53.9
Lower than forecast is good for Crypto.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Busy week for economic data🗞️📑📝
This coming week will see another holiday-shortened session (July 4th Independence Day), though the data-calendar is actually going to be relatively jam-packed. Monday’s ‘early-close’ will see Manufacturing PMI, ISM, and auto-sales all condensed into ~3–4 hours of condensed market action. Following that, we’ll see a rare Labour-Trifecta day with ADP, Jobless Claims, and JOLTS all due on Thursday, followed by ISM Services, June FOMC Minutes, and Friday’s last NFP report before the July Fed meeting. This might be the last and busiest data week before market participants begin to embark on their long summer holidays.
#PMI #ADP #ISM #FOMC #NFP
This coming week will see another holiday-shortened session (July 4th Independence Day), though the data-calendar is actually going to be relatively jam-packed. Monday’s ‘early-close’ will see Manufacturing PMI, ISM, and auto-sales all condensed into ~3–4 hours of condensed market action. Following that, we’ll see a rare Labour-Trifecta day with ADP, Jobless Claims, and JOLTS all due on Thursday, followed by ISM Services, June FOMC Minutes, and Friday’s last NFP report before the July Fed meeting. This might be the last and busiest data week before market participants begin to embark on their long summer holidays.
#PMI #ADP #ISM #FOMC #NFP
Economic data surprises the market💫
German factory orders started the session on a strong note with a 6.4% MoM print vs 1.2% expected, but it was ADP that really got the party going with an implausible +497k print vs +225k expected (Services +373k, manufacturing -420k), along with a stable weekly claims (248k) and the lowest Challenger layoff announcements since last October. Although the JOLTs data was a bit more muted with the weakest job-vacancy to unemployed ratio since October 2021 (1.6x) balanced against a rebound in quits rate (more voluntary quits), ISM Services more than made up for whatever disappointment one might have had with a strong beat in headlines as well as the New Orders (55.5 vs 52.9) and Employment (53.1 vs 49.2) sub-indices.
#ADP #manufacturing #Challenger #jolts #ISM
German factory orders started the session on a strong note with a 6.4% MoM print vs 1.2% expected, but it was ADP that really got the party going with an implausible +497k print vs +225k expected (Services +373k, manufacturing -420k), along with a stable weekly claims (248k) and the lowest Challenger layoff announcements since last October. Although the JOLTs data was a bit more muted with the weakest job-vacancy to unemployed ratio since October 2021 (1.6x) balanced against a rebound in quits rate (more voluntary quits), ISM Services more than made up for whatever disappointment one might have had with a strong beat in headlines as well as the New Orders (55.5 vs 52.9) and Employment (53.1 vs 49.2) sub-indices.
#ADP #manufacturing #Challenger #jolts #ISM
US stock index drops, employment expectations might be disappointing😱
Today's NFP expectations have undoubtedly been raised thanks to ADP's blow-out figures, though GS warns that June's data seasonality tends to be more restrictive for payroll growth, so there might be scope for disappointment against elevated expectations. On the equity side, all SPX sub-sectors were in the red yesterday as equities were sold on worries of a renewed and sustained higher move back in yields. Furthermore, survey data from JPM shows institutional money manager exposures at back close to all time highs, with markets ill-positioned for unexpected sell-off here should we get one in the 3rd quarter.
#NFP #ADP #payroll #SPX #JPM
Today's NFP expectations have undoubtedly been raised thanks to ADP's blow-out figures, though GS warns that June's data seasonality tends to be more restrictive for payroll growth, so there might be scope for disappointment against elevated expectations. On the equity side, all SPX sub-sectors were in the red yesterday as equities were sold on worries of a renewed and sustained higher move back in yields. Furthermore, survey data from JPM shows institutional money manager exposures at back close to all time highs, with markets ill-positioned for unexpected sell-off here should we get one in the 3rd quarter.
#NFP #ADP #payroll #SPX #JPM
