Les indicateurs avancés ne signalent plus de récession, signe positif pour les actifs à risque

Binance News · 2024-08-20T10:53:38.000Z

Selon CoinDesk, les principaux indicateurs économiques américains pointent toujours vers un ralentissement mais ne signalent plus de récession, comme le montrent les données du Conference Board, un organisme de recherche non partisan et à but non lucratif. Cette évolution est considérée comme un signe positif pour les actifs à risque, notamment les cryptomonnaies, qui avaient été affectées par les craintes de récession au début du mois d'août.Les indicateurs économiques avancés (LEI) du Conference Board ont baissé de 0,6 % en juillet pour s'établir à 100,4, après une baisse de 0,2 % en juin. Le LEI, qui a culminé au deuxième trimestre de 2022, suit depuis lors une tendance à la baisse. Le LEI comprend plusieurs indicateurs prospectifs tels que le nombre moyen d'heures de travail hebdomadaires dans le secteur manufacturier, les demandes initiales d'assurance chômage, l'indice ISM des nouvelles commandes, les cours des actions et l'indice avancé du crédit. Ces indicateurs aident à identifier les changements de tendances économiques et les points de retournement sur les marchés financiers et sont considérés comme des signaux fiables d'une récession, définie comme des contractions trimestrielles consécutives du taux de croissance.

According to CoinDesk, the leading U.S. economic indicators are still pointing to a slowdown but no longer signal a recession, as shown by data from the Conference Board, a nonpartisan and non-profit research organization. This development is seen as a positive sign for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which had been affected by recession fears earlier in August.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) declined by 0.6% in July to 100.4, following a 0.2% drop in June. The LEI, which peaked in the second quarter of 2022, has been on a downward trend since then. The LEI includes several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices, and the leading credit index. These indicators help identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in financial markets and are considered reliable signals of a recession, defined as consecutive quarterly contractions in the growth rate.
The continued decline in the LEI suggests impending economic headwinds. However, the annualized six-month change narrowed to -2.1% in July from -3.1% in June, indicating that the risk of recession is lessening. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, stated that while the LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals a recession ahead.
This latest reading is likely reassuring to risk asset bulls, especially given the recent market slide and resulting negative sentiment. Earlier this month, recession fears gripped the market after U.S. nonfarm payrolls data revealed a sharp slowdown in job creation in July. The Treasury yield curve witnessed bull steepening, signaling a recession alongside a similar warning by Sahm's Rule. The mass unwinding of yen carry trades further exacerbated the situation, leading to significant drops in stocks and a tumble in bitcoin prices from $70,000 to $50,000. Since then, bitcoin has climbed back to over $60,000.
While the Conference Board's leading index is trending downward, the coincident indicators, which reflect the economy's current state, are rising along with the lagging indicators. This pattern is a classic sign of an economy in a late-stage expansion phase.

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