A recent post from Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, has stirred up excitement in the XRP community. Aljarrah consulted ChatGPT, OpenAI’s Large Language Model, about the possibility of central banks adopting XRP as a digital asset. The conversation suggested an 85% chance of such an adoption if it could prevent a global financial collapse.
XRP is one of the top cryptocurrencies in the market, and it was designed to facilitate cross-border payments by acting as a reserve currency or Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
Increased adoption by banks could be a significant turning point for XRP. However, the validity of this specific prediction and the likelihood of central bank adoption of XRP was questioned by some skeptics, and their concerns require further examination.
The Likelihood of XRP Adoption
Several factors cast a shadow of certainty on the 85% figure in the initial exchange between Aljarrah and ChatGPT. Large language models, like ChatGPT, are known for not providing definitive answers in hypothetical scenarios.
In such cases, a more nuanced response that acknowledges the uncertain nature of the request and the limitations of providing specific answers would be expected. One user pointed this out, calling the post fake.
What further complicates the matter is the varying responses received by others who interacted with ChatGPT on the same topic. Matt Hamilton, a former Ripple director, reported a 15% chance from the AI in a similar conversation. Aljarrah also pointed out that ChatGPT gave him a 20% chance when he asked a second time.
AI-powered LLMs like ChatGPT often consider multiple factors before giving predictions, and these predictions can vary wildly from one response to another.
A Different Opinion
To get a different perspective, we employed the JamesGPT (Just Accurate Markets Estimation System) prompt created by Coinbase Director Conor Grogan. This prompt causes ChatGPT to assign probabilities to requests and can help reveal its belief structure when analyzing multiple results.
JamesGPT predicted a 15% chance that banks will adopt XRP if the financial systems fail, and is 95% confident of this prediction.
While there is no certainty that banks will adopt XRP, the conversation touches on a broader topic: the potential role of digital assets in the future of financial systems. Central banks around the world are actively exploring and developing CBDCs.
Meanwhile, Ripple representatives recently met with the National Bank of Georgia. It is what noting that if XRP fails to get the expected adoption, many banks might still switch to similar blockchain-based digital systems.
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