The United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced yesterday that it will appeal Judge Analisa Torres’s ruling, which gave XRP a victory against them. The notice of appeal was made yesterday.
It Could Be Another Long Wait for XRP Holders
In response to this development, attorney Fred Rispoli shared insights on X regarding the timeline for the SEC’s appeal. He outlined the following key points:
The SEC’s brief is likely due on December 2, 2024, with a probable 30-day extension, pushing the deadline to shortly after January 1, 2025. Ripple is expected to file a cross-appeal, with its opening brief due around the same time as the SEC’s.
Opposition briefs will be due around February 2, 2025, with Ripple likely taking an extension to March 2, 2025. Reply briefs are anticipated by the end of March 2025.
Oral arguments are expected to be scheduled for September to October 2025. A ruling from the Second Circuit is projected for January 2026 at the earliest, but more likely in March or April.
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Mistakes by the SEC, They Will Likely Lose
Lawyer Jeremy Hogan, a partner at Hogan & Hogan, elaborated on why he believes the SEC is likely to lose the appeal and that this move may be a strategic error.
According to him, the SEC’s appeal could be a significant mistake. If it challenges the programmatic sales ruling and wins, it may secure more funds from Ripple without protecting anyone. Conversely, if Ripple raises its “Blue Sky” law issue and prevails, it could severely limit the SEC’s ability to regulate the crypto industry.
Initial thoughts on the SEC Appeal:1. Big mistake by the SEC. It will appeal the programmatic sales ruling and IF it wins, it will get more money from Ripple and have protected no one. Ripple will raise its "Blue Sky" law issue and, if it wins, the SEC's ability to regulate…
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 3, 2024
This appeal is by right, meaning that the trial judge cannot reject it. Statistically and based on the detailed nature of the judge’s opinion, the SEC is very likely to lose. Even if the SEC wins, the outcome will likely only involve financial implications, with no changes to XRP’s status or Ripple’s operations.
The SEC is expected to clarify the specific issues it is appealing soon, with its first brief due by mid-December. It will not be contesting the assertion that “XRP is not a Security.” The appeal’s focus on the injunction will also be crucial.
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A ruling from the Appellate Court is not anticipated until late 2025 or early 2026. Hogan humorously noted that he previously underestimated the timeline. He expressed skepticism about the timing of Attorney Grewal’s departure from the SEC coinciding with the appeal’s announcement, suggesting it might not be a mere coincidence.
The hope for a swift resolution may hinge on potential changes in the SEC’s leadership, speculating that a return of Trump could lead to a refocus of the agency on protecting investors from fraud.
The Appeal’s Impact on XRP Price
CryptoTank, another commentator, asserted that the SEC’s appeal may ultimately be inconsequential. He noted that countries such as those in BRICS and Japan are actively adopting XRP regardless of the ongoing lawsuit, emphasizing that XRP remains central to the new financial system.
He cautioned against fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) influencing investors.
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Despite this optimistic view, Jacob Merkley expressed concerns about the viability of holding XRP, given its stagnant price for years. He wondered if selling now and potentially repurchasing later might be a more strategic move.
In response, CryptoTank emphasized that attempting to time the market can lead to missed opportunities. He argued that when XRP’s price does rise significantly, it will likely catch many off guard, similar to the experiences of Bitcoin investors.
Will XRP Price Crash?
XRP price dipped quickly yesterday following the announcement. Yesterday alone, the price crashed by more than 11%. However, a larger picture shows that it is still within the consolidation phase.
The news will obviously create some negative sentiment around the coin; people may keep dropping it for other options. Many retail investors may not desire to wait until the next year or two before seeing some growth in their portfolios, as such appeal processes take time.
But will Ripple finally crash? Maybe not. For some reason, XRP has maintained a sideways trading pattern since the case started in 2020. The coin has been able to survive various bear markets paired with the most fierce regulatory battle in the crypto world.
Now that it has more partnerships and some other countries are looking into the token, it might hold up better than expected. We may see the price sustain its sideways trading for a while. However, the community will continue to stay abreast of more information to understand the fate of their beloved token.
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