The year 2024 saw the approval of two exchange-traded funds (ETF) products: spot Bitcoin ETF and spot Ethereum ETF.
Some industry stakeholders believe significant progress has been made in getting regulatory approval for these two coins. In line with this, expectations abound for more related products. This has spurred VanEck and 21Shares to apply to the U.S. SEC for a spot Solana ETF. Recently, Grayscale Trust took the first step toward launching an XRP ETF when it launched XRP Trust for accredited investors.
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Projections on Solana and XRP ETF approvals
Despite this apparent progress, Nate Geraci, an ETF analyst, has projected likely factors that could impact the future of ETF approval. Geraci’s analysis covers Solana, XRP and ETF products generally.
Politics aside, it’s difficult to envision any addn’l spot crypto ETFs coming to market under current administration…Nothing would indicate a spot solana or xrp ETF is possible in next yr or two given current state.For better or worse, likely comes down to November election.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 14, 2024
In an X post, Geraci stated that, given the current stance of the U.S. administration, an additional spot crypto ETF product is difficult. He maintained that the analysis lacks political undertones, as the present reality speaks for itself.
“Nothing would indicate a spot Solana or XRP ETF is possible in next year or two given current state. For better or worse, it likely comes down to November election,” Geraci wrote.
Will next U.S. president influence crypto ETF approvals?
Despite the disclaimer on the post, a significant fraction of the community strongly believes cryptocurrency will play a role in determining the next U.S. president.
Notably, both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have had to shift their hard stance on crypto. Additionally, Trump’s vice president, Senator J.D. Vance, strongly supports cryptocurrency.
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Therefore, Geraci suggests that for the crypto industry to record another spot ETF approval, President Joe Biden's current administration has to end. A new administration could then begin to redefine its stance and policies toward the digital asset ecosystem.
As per his projection, any further crypto ETF may not come until 2025 or 2026.
