Current sentiment ranges between "entering a new bear market" and "to the moon"
But what is the most realistic outcome?
None of the two. Here is what we believe is going to happen and why the current cycle top will not really be a cycle top and will also be much lower than most people expect.
1. Markte cap slows growth
In the past,$BTC pulled 100x, 20x etc from the bear market bottoms. But is it really realistic this time? We believe it is not. Market cap back then was much lower, and the lever therefore extremely huge once a run was initiated.
2. Take a look at the shared cahrt
If you compare the current BTC Market Cap to a large cap like $AAPL, you will see that 1.2 Tn is likely not the top. But 20x from here seems highly unrealistic. We believe that BTC will follow this blueprint and might reach +150 - 200% in the next 2 years. This would mean we are at around 150k - 180k, maybe 200k.
3. Cycle Top will flatten out
Bitcoin is now too big too fail. Many consider it "digital gold" and even boomer organisations and Tradfi is investing in BTC, like they are investing in Gold, Stocks, Indices... We believe cycles will flatten and drops will resemble like S&P 500 bear markets where we see -20 to -30% in larger corrections. The "parabolic phase" will likely flatten too and growth will be more constant and less bubbly.
4. Growth will be constant
BTC will reach 5 Tn, 10 Tn or 15 Tn Market cap over time.. Why? It simply is the best asset on earth and has the great advantage vs. the US Dollar, that there is limited inflation and thus no devaluation.
All in all, BTC has a great future ahead. And DCAing will likely be the best option rather than seasonal investing.
We believe that these developments will ultimately be good for BTC.
