Following the latest collapse in Bitcoin prices, the CEO of Binance Italy Gianluigi Guida explained the determining factors of the heavy sell-off, while simultaneously highlighting a marked optimism for the future forecasts of the sector.
At the same time, the research section of the same exchange published its own semi-annual report on the state of the cryptographic industry, highlighting the trends currently in place.
Let’s see what to expect from Bitcoin and the entire market in the coming months.
All the details below.
Binance: predictions and reasons for the collapse of the price of Bitcoin
After the latest price crash of Bitcoin and the crypto exchanges, the CEO of Binance Italy intervened to offer his point of view on the incident and took the opportunity to reveal future forecasts.
In the press conference Gianluigi Guida explained what he believes were the elements that influenced such a violent price dynamic.
Primarily the sell-off was fueled by significant volatility on Wall Street, with US tech stocks suffering from a complex macroeconomic landscape.
Driven by growing concerns about the risk of recession, US stock indices and futures saw a sharp decline over the weekend.
In a single day, 2 trillion dollars were wiped out from the US stock market, while Taiwan recorded the worst performance in 57 years of trading.
BREAKING 
$2 TRILLION wiped out from stocks this morning due to fears of a global recession. 
EMERGENCY FED MEETING EXPECTED pic.twitter.com/Fzs1Js3pDJ
— Radar
(@RadarHits) August 5, 2024
To aggravate the situation, there have been geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns in Japan regarding the trend of monetary policies.
These losses have simultaneously spilled over into the crypto market, with Bitcoin opening the week with a drop of around 15%.
From its all-time high, BTC has lost 33% of its value, highlighting one of the most violent drops since the Covid Crash of 2020.
#Bitcoin
BTC closed below $60,000, followed by a quick 15% dump on today's daily candle.
The next important support is near the long-term upward-sloping trendline.
The price is down -33% from the $73,900 ATH, marking the biggest correction of this cycle so far. https://t.co/68fkmN2f4c pic.twitter.com/Ar1uUxmifr
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) August 5, 2024
The CEO of Binance Italy then explained how the generalized fears on the macro front have caused a rapid reallocation of investment capital away from risk-on assets.
Digital assets, perceived as highly risky, have been abandoned from the positions of speculators, accompanying mountains of liquidations on derivative markets.
Think that on Monday, August 5, in just one hour, a whopping 350 million dollars were wiped out, with a predominance of long liquidations.
The market sentiment has quickly shifted from an almost neutral trend to total panic among retail investors.
#BTC Fear & Greed now at 17 pic.twitter.com/HzAxjkwIRb
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 6, 2024
Bitcoin: positive forecasts for 2024 and 2025
Despite the alarming situation with the collapse of prices on Bitcoin and the stock market, Binance remains optimistic and reveals positive future forecasts.
Gianluigi Guida expects that the medium/long-term outlook will gradually ease, taking a bullish turn. In particular, from now until 2025, it is possible that speculative assets may recover from the latest capitulations to mark new bullish targets.
The reason for this confidence lies in the current monetary outlook of the United States Federal Reserve, which after a biennium of tightening easing is preparing to change course.
In play since September is the first FED meeting to establish a possible cut of 50 basis points on the yields of Government Bonds.
At the moment, the forecasts of almost all the most relevant US financial institutions highlight high probabilities for a first cut starting next month.
Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its three remaining policy meetings this year.
But there's greater skew now as a few see the likelihood of larger moves https://t.co/nuPs9LpzzX pic.twitter.com/KlDrsFsaoh
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 7, 2024
At the same time, giving Bitcoin traders some breathing room is the American Treasury which has announced a buyback program worth 30 billion dollars monthly.
The money will be used to purchase bonds and inject liquidity into the markets, making quotations and buying pressure from demand more favorable.
Furthermore, we remind you that in November the US presidential elections will take place: if Trump were to emerge victorious, he could extend these initiatives in support of the markets.
He himself has defined himself as a supporter of Bitcoin, ready to include it as a strategic reserve asset of the nation.
BREAKING: STARTING TOMORROW THE US WILL START $30 BILLION PER MONTH TREASURY BUY BACKS
Money printer go BRRRRRRR!!! pic.twitter.com/1RLBZ80fMZ
— Kyle Chassé (@kyle_chasse) August 6, 2024
The optimistic forecasts from Binance on Bitcoin, with ambitious targets in the coming years, are also influenced by the positive data from ETFs.
While the crypto market is experiencing a worrying crash, ETF investors have not panicked and have recorded slight outflows.
This testifies how the institutional investors are oriented towards a long-term horizon and are not frightened by market volatility.
The semi-annual report of Binance on the outlook of the crypto market
The semi-annual report recently published by Binance confirms the theory that the collapse in Bitcoin prices is only temporary and destined to reverse towards positive future forecasts.
In the first half of 2024, the crypto sector recorded a significant growth of 37.3%, with a large portion of the gains reported in the first quarter.
The second quarter was dominated by sales that led to a contained decrease of 14.3%, leaving optimistic glimpses on the horizon.
Let’s remember how even the previous year in 2023 the demand surpassed the supply with a Q4 that saw a significant growth of 53.8%.
After the bear market of 2022, it is clear how the bulls have always had the situation under control.
Ranging from speculation and moving to the technological side, we cannot fail to mention Binance’s considerations on the improvement of cryptographic infrastructures.
In 2024 we witnessed a wave of new protocols inaugurated in the web3 world with the parallel launch of various layer-1 chains, rollups, sidechains, etc.
Worth mentioning is the rapid influx of capital into the second-layer scaling chains on Ethereum, where the TVL has seen a jump of 12 billion dollars since the beginning of the year.
In particular, gli optimistic rollup e zk-rollup hanno assunto un ruolo fondamentale nei piani di scaling di Ethereum, che ora si serve di queste reti per aumentare l’offerta di blockspace.
Source: https://public.bnbstatic.com/static/files/research/half-year-report-2024.pdf
Binance has finally analyzed a strong increase in interest for various sectors of the crypto world, arguing that the recent crash did not imply an abandonment by industry insiders and investors.
Artificial intelligence, memecoin, RWA, airdrop, restaking, web3 gaming and SocialFi are just some of the categories most appreciated by users in this 2024.
Their explosion in terms of retail interest justifies a narrative of future growth for the entire Bitcoin and crypto industry.
While speculation underlies contrasting dynamics and alternates moments of happiness with despondency, technological growth sees only one trajectory, and that is development.
