Following the delisting announcement for Mdex ($MDX), this token received a lot of market attention, and strong market demand emerged in the market. The weekly volume increased 392%, with a weekly return of 27.5%.
Worldcoin ($WLD) experienced a similarly strong market demand after the project team announced that the vesting period for early investors and team members would be extended from three to five years. This announcement would reduce the expected increase in circulating supply. $WLD rose 15% immediately following the announcement and gained 47.3% in the last week.
Over the weekend, rumours circulated that Ripple Labs might settle its ongoing legal dispute with US regulators soon. The rumour boosted the Ripple ($XRP) price above $0.63 on Wednesday, but it fell sharply on Thursday after the scheduled private meeting between the SEC and Ripple was cancelled. In 2020, the US SEC accused Ripple Labs, the blockchain developer and creator of the XRP token, of raising more than $1.3 billion in 2013 by selling XRP in an unregistered security offering to investors.
Overall Market
The above chart shows the BTC price movement since the beginning of 2024.
Bitcoin recovered from its $54k low following the completion of the German government's 50k BTC sale. The rebound was primarily driven by technical recovery following the oversold condition.
The assassination attempt during Trump's rally in Pennsylvania this weekend was shocking. Donald Trump, the former president of the United States and the Republican Party's presumptive nominee for the 2024 presidential election, was shot and wounded in the right ear.
The assassination did not derail Trump; rather, the 2024 US presidential election odds showed that Trump's winning chances increased. Capital market cheered for the potential presidential election win by Trump, and BTC surged above $64k in Monday's session.
However, the $11,000 rally over the last few days could be a recovery rather than a trend reversal. There are several key levels to monitor as the BTC recovers further. The $63.8k level is an important level to monitor for Bitcoin price. It served as the resistance level during the last few rebounds. The $66k level is also a key resistance level.
On Wednesday morning, Asia time, an on-chain movement from the Mt. Gox wallet alarmed the market and sent the BTC price plummeting. Traders believed the move was intended to repay Mt. Gox's creditors, and it could result in another round of BTC sales. The price movement also showed that headlines have a strong influence on the BTC price. Our team expects the BTC price to remain sideways in the coming weeks until a substantial development on the blockchain drives the price to a new all-time high.
With the rumour that ETH spot ETFs will be listed on stock exchanges next week, our desk noticed that the market was shifting focus from BTC to ETH. If we see a significant capital inflow into ETH ETFs after the listing, it could boost the bullish momentum of ETH and thus the entire crypto market.
Options Market
The above chart is the 25-delta skew for BTC options with various tenors.
According to the chart, the skew of near-term BTC options has been rising in the last two weeks, crossing the zero line on July 13 following the Trump assassination attempt. It is the first indication that the market is shifting its outlook from bearish to neutral for BTC's near-term performance.
After the BTC movement from the Mt. Gox wallet, traders panicked and sold, but the options market showed that the near-term skew recovered from the 0 line following the initial reaction.
The chart shows that longer-term options have a higher skew toward calls. The skew showed a strong upward trend, particularly for 30-day expiry options. Instead of focusing on puts for downside protection, options traders are positioning on calls with upside potential.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (24-07-11)
In June, the US CPI came in cooler than expected, with a 0.1% monthly drop versus an estimated 0.1% increase and a 3.0% annual growth versus an estimated 3.1% increase. The US dollar fell immediately after the CPI data was released, but recovered some of the loss before the market closed.
US initial jobless claims fell to 222k this week from 239k the previous week.
Last Friday (24-07-12)
In June, US PPI increased by 0.2% month on month, exceeding expectations of 0.1% and 0.0% in May. The annualised PPI change in June was 2.6%, significantly higher than the 2.2% recorded in May and the forecasted 2.3%. The higher-than-expected PPI data in June may lead to higher inflation in the coming months, which could have a negative impact on the Federal Reserve's potential rate-cut decision later this year.
On Sunday (24-07-14)
China's GDP increased by 0.7% in the second quarter, falling short of the 1.1% forecast. The annual increase was 4.7%, lower than the expected 5.1%. The weaker-than-expected GDP growth in China has raised market concerns about the country's economic health, particularly its government debt level.
On Monday (24-07-15)
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed would not wait until inflation fell to 2% before lowering interest rates. The dovish comment pushed Bitcoin's price above $64,500.
On Tuesday (24-07-16)
US retail sales remained unchanged in June compared to May, which is stronger than the expected 0.3% decline. Furthermore, core retail sales increased by 0.4% per month during the same period, exceeding the expected 0.1% growth.
In June, Canada's annual inflation rate fell more than expected to 2.7%, while the Bank of Canada's closely tracked core inflation measures were 1.9%. The market is pricing in a 93% chance of the second rate cut by the BoC next week.
On Wednesday (24-07-17)
The eurozone's annualised CPI fell to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May. Core CPI increased by 2.9% over the same period, the same as in May.
On Thursday (24-07-18)
The European Central Bank maintained its main interest rate at 3.75%, as the market expected. Christine Lagarde, its chief, stated that the decision on a possible September cut was "wide open," but downplayed concerns about sticky price pressures.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
Our desk saw more active flows, with Bitcoin trading back above $63k following the Trump assassination attempt over the weekend. Last week, AI zones experienced the greatest volume change.
Worldcoin ($WLD) experienced an increase in demand after a weekend rebound and positive news from the project team and early investors regarding a delayed vesting schedule. It is the primary reason for the 72.7% volume increase in the AI zone.
Following the delisting announcement, the Mdex ($MDX) price skyrocketed with a significant volume increase. It was the primary cause of last week's Monitoring zone volume increase.
Floki ($FLOKI) outperformed the market with an over 20% return last week, and the strong trade demand for this token is the primary reason for the Metaverse zone's 35.7% volume increase.
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