TLDR

  • Some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $110,000 to $220,000 in its next major rally.

  • Concerns exist about Bitcoin forming a pattern of “lower highs and lower lows” on price charts.

  • The end of miner capitulation periods following Bitcoin halvings has historically preceded significant price increases.

  • Bitcoin recently reclaimed the short-term holder (STH) realized price, which is seen as a positive sign.

  • Low trading volumes are noted as a potential concern for the current price movement.

Bitcoin’s price action continues to captivate the cryptocurrency market, with analysts offering a wide range of predictions for its next major move.

Despite concerns about a pattern of “lower highs and lower lows” forming on price charts, some traders remain bullish, forecasting potential highs of $110,000 to $220,000 in Bitcoin’s next significant rally.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated, “The next leg is likely to bring Bitcoin to $110K.”

At the bottom, #Bitcoin miners are capitulating.

The True Hashrate Drawdown at its last low on July 1st was as HEAVY as during the FTX collapse.

This marks a cycle low. Since the Mt. Gox news, the price has rallied 20%.

The next leg is likely to bring Bitcoin to $110K. pic.twitter.com/pCSifNMrgW

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 17, 2024

This optimistic outlook comes even as veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that “the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues despite the halving, despite the ETF, despite the hype.”

While I am impressed by the current bounce in Bitcoin $BTC it should be noted that the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues despite the halving, despite the ETf, despite the hype pic.twitter.com/V5M6FFaMpJ

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 17, 2024

The recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price has been linked to the struggles faced by Bitcoin miners due to rising operational costs and reduced mining rewards following the April halving event. Van de Poppe noted, “The true hashrate drawdown at its last low on July 1st was as HEAVY as during the FTX collapse.”

Some analysts are basing their bullish predictions on historical patterns related to miner capitulation.

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Cryptonary shared a hash ribbons chart showing that the end of miner capitulation periods following Bitcoin halvings has historically preceded significant price increases.

Historically, the end of Miner Capitulation periods following Bitcoin Halvings has led to significant price increases for Bitcoin in the subsequent months and year.

The Hash Ribbon metric suggests that Bitcoin bottoms out when miners capitulate due to high mining costs and/or… pic.twitter.com/6CiDVyKM7i

— Cryptonary (@cryptonary) July 17, 2024

Based on this pattern, Cryptonary suggested a potential price peak of $223,000 for this cycle.

Bitcoin’s recent reclaiming of the short-term holder (STH) realized price is seen as a positive development.

CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn explained, “This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.” Maartunn added that since 2023, Bitcoin reclaiming the STH realized price has resulted in at least 30% profits on two occasions.

However, the cryptocurrency market remains highly unpredictable, and not all analysts share the same optimistic outlook. Crypto trader Marco Johanning suggests a more conservative target, stating that Bitcoin will not go to $100,000, “at least not this time,” offering a prediction nearly 19% lower at around $81,000 to $94,000.

"BTC will go to 100k!" 🚀
Nah. At least not this time.

The new low at 53.4k changes the targets for Bitcoin to 81k or 94k

But it is definitely time to watch this video again!
-> Start at 6:00 min https://t.co/2HUDjaYQRp pic.twitter.com/sgX0uWSBQh

— Marco Johanning (@themarcojo) July 17, 2024

The area around $65,000 remains a key target for bulls to flip to support.

Trader and former fund manager Aksel Kibar sees this as a positive sign, noting, “This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sign of pending breakout.”

This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as very bullish long-term.

Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sin of pending breakout. pic.twitter.com/9ajs8yAy07

— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) July 18, 2024

Despite the optimism, some traders are urging caution. Popular crypto trader JT highlighted that Bitcoin needs to break through several Fibonacci retracement levels for a shot at new all-time highs.

JT also pointed out a concerning trend in trading volumes, noting that current volume is “notable” in being the opposite of that seen during the recent BTC price four-month lows near $53,000.

Bitcoin Update:

• We expected a bounce to $65K-$66K from our oversold region at $53.5K, it was quite a bullish setup on the LTF chart

• BUT! Now we have hit the PRIMARY .618 from the 4.236 Fib high

• DXY weakness notwithstanding, Bulls must break over .786 Fib for new ATH’s pic.twitter.com/KxTX3sF60O

— JT ✝ (@JTheretohelp1) July 17, 2024

 

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