Over the weekend, an apparently negative news regarding Donald Trump had positive effects on the price of Bitcoin.
Analyzing it better, however, the news does not seem negative at all.
The news regarding Donald Trump and the impact on the price of Bitcoin
The news is obviously the attempted murder of Donald Trump.
Saturday afternoon, in fact, Joe Biden’s challenger in the November presidential elections was the victim of an attack while holding a rally in Pennsylvania.
The assailant, a certain Thomas Matthew Crooks, shot him from about a hundred meters away, wounding him.
Trump was immediately protected by the security detail, and in the end, he only suffered small superficial wounds to the face and ears.
Today he is already expected in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for another electoral rally.
Although this may appear as negative news for Donald Trump, in reality, it also had positive consequences for him, given that he was not seriously injured.
Polls show that surviving that attack has gained him further support, so much so that he is now considered much more favored compared to Biden.
In reality, he was already ahead before the attack, especially after the televised debate between the two in which Biden appeared dull and dazed, but since yesterday the gap seems to have widened, so much so that at this moment Trump is considered the big favorite.
.@Polymarket – Swing States Odds
PENNSYLVANIA 
Trump: 67% (new high)
Biden: 33%
—
WISCONSIN Trump: 65% (new high) Biden: 35%
—
MICHIGAN Trump: 61% (new high) Biden: 39%
—
ARIZONA Trump: 78% (new high) Biden: 22%
—
NEVADA Trump: 79% Biden: 21%… pic.twitter.com/J4YZrKFyWZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 14, 2024
The consequences on the price of Bitcoin of the news about Trump
Before the attack, the price of Bitcoin on Saturday was around $58,000.
At the moment the news started to circulate, it dropped to $57,000, but with a decline that was not at all decisive, although fast. In fact, it simply returned to the values of Friday morning.
However, when the news started to circulate that Trump had only been grazed, the price of BTC returned to $58,000, nullifying all losses.
At that point, however, something happened.
Some photographs of the attack have started circulating, especially on X, which have attracted a lot of support towards Donald Trump.
The most powerful of these was also shared by Elon Musk, who expressed total support for the Republican candidate.
pic.twitter.com/6eOgN9UdOy
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 13, 2024
Nel mondo della finanza, i termini “bull” e “bear” sono comunemente usati per descrivere le tendenze del mercato. Un mercato “bull” è caratterizzato da un aumento dei prezzi delle azioni, mentre un mercato “bear” è caratterizzato da una diminuzione dei prezzi delle azioni.
This dynamic made the financial markets believe that the probabilities of Trump’s victory had become significant, and since Trump is a pro-crypto president, this had positive effects on the crypto markets.
The rise of the crypto markets
At that point, the price of Bitcoin started to rise, first above $60,000 yesterday, and then today also above $62,000.
These are values that have not been seen since the first of July, and that are in line with those of mid-May and the end of February.
With the rise of yesterday and today, it seems that the correction that started last Tuesday, which brought the price of BTC to record new post-halving lows, has ended.
But it is not only Bitcoin to rise again.
For example, Ethereum, for which the launch of new spot ETH ETFs on the US stock exchange is expected soon, has returned above $3,300, after being below $2,900 last week.
Taking as a reference the prices from seven days ago, Bitcoin is at +12%, Ethereum at +14%, BNB at +10% and Solana at +15%. XRP is even at +25%, but generally, Ripple’s cryptocurrency follows a slightly different trend from the others.
Cardano is also above +20%, while TON is an exception, stopping at +4%.
It is worth noting, however, that in the medium term, and particularly since the beginning of the year, BTC and ETH are respectively at +49% and +47%, while XRP is at -13% and ADA at -26%.
So the rise has been there a bit for everyone, in the short term, while in the medium term significant differences remain.
Trump and crypto
In the 4 years of Joe Biden’s democratic government, U.S. government authorities have often lashed out against the crypto sector, primarily the SEC.
Furthermore, the process of the bill developed by Congress to regulate the sector has been interrupted.
The Republican Donald Trump, on the other hand, is much more favorable towards cryptocurrencies, both because he himself owns them in quantity and because he has publicly expressed his support for the sector.
In fact, precisely for this reason, he has received several attestations of support and backing from the crypto world, not least from the founder of Tron Justin Sun.
In light of this, it is easy to understand why the increase in the gap in the electoral polls between the challenger Trump and President Biden has had a positive impact on cryptocurrency prices.
Moreover, after a difficult week – the last one – it was already clear on Friday that the ongoing correction had ended. At that point, it was absolutely reasonable to expect a rebound, and the above-mentioned news did nothing but trigger a rebound that was probably already ready to happen.
The wait for autumn
However, one should not celebrate victory too soon.
First of all, it is not certain that the medium/long-term trend has reversed.
In fact, the lateralization of the Bitcoin price that started at the end of February is still alive, causing it to oscillate always within a range between $57,000 and $72,000 with rare exceptions above and below.
In March it remained above $72,000 for about three days, while about ten days ago it fell below $57,000 for two days, then returned there again on July 8.
These small and brief excursions above and below the price range that has been holding since the end of February actually have very little significance in the medium/long term, unless they occur frequently and, above all, last longer.
Therefore, on one hand, the period of lateralization persists, despite the brief dip below $57,000 last week, while on the other hand, there are no clear signs of a possible breakout above the $72,000 wall in the short term.
Everything could be postponed to the autumn, given that November could be a particularly hot month for Bitcoin, even if markets often try to anticipate events. In that case, if the bullish breakout is expected for the autumn, it is possible that the markets could start pricing it in as early as the end of August.