After being injured at a rally in Pennsylvania, former U.S. president Donald Trump's probability of retaking the White House soared on Polymarket. According to The New York Times, a Secret Service spokesman confirmed Trump is "safe," but a suspected gunman and a spectator were killed. Defiant photos of Trump with blood on his face circulated on social media, shifting the national conversation away from incumbent President Joe Biden's frailty.
"Yes" shares in Polymarket's contract on Trump's presidential victory climbed ten cents to 70 cents, indicating a 70% chance of his win. Bets are settled in USDC, a stablecoin. Trump-related "Polifi" meme tokens like MAGA surged, with MAGA up 34% to $8.38 and TREMP up 67% to $0.6471. The CoinDesk 20 index, a proxy for the overall cryptocurrency market, rose 3.31%, and Bitcoin increased 3.26% to $59,735.17. Trump's pro-crypto stance bolstered market confidence.
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan, has seen record trading volumes with $252 million in bets on the U.S. presidential winner contract. PredictIt also showed Trump shares climbing from 59 cents to 66 cents before leveling at 65 cents. Prediction markets, where participants put money on the line, are often seen as more reliable than polls.