Bitcoin (BTC) price has been fluctuating between $55,000 and $58,200 for nearly a week, as the 200-day EMA at $58,000 remained a stubborn resistance.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price trading at $57,841, up 0.36% amid lower trading volumes, suggesting an extended consolidation period.
Let’s look at the reasons why BTC price remains stuck today.
Bitcoin price weighed down by the 200-day EMA
On July 4, Bitcoin price fell below the critical support provided by the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), fueled by persistent BTC selling by the German government and expected repayments by Mt. Gox.
Several attempts have been made to reclaim the said level, but each has failed to spark a broader price trend.
Instead, BTC has been “chopping” below this “key SR area” for about seven days now, according to independent trader and analyst Jelle.
“Bitcoin is progressing well along the roadmap,” declared fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades in an X post on July 11.
Drawing from the recent price action, Bitcoin had reclaimed $56,500, a key level to hold to avoid “danger for more immediate downside.”
Daan Crypto Trades said,
“Now fighting the big battle with the Daily 200MA/EMA & Range low.”
The drop below the 200-day EMA saw Bitcoin Whales buying into a block of ask liquidity below this level, according to FireCharts shared by trading resource Material Indicators.
According to Material Indicators, a decisive candlestick above this level would signal strength among the buyers.
“I'd like to see BTC Bulls push past the 200-day MA and the 21-day MA in one Daily candle to show a sign of strength. Failure to do so would be a sign of weakness”
Bitcoin whales continue accumulating
Bitcoin whales appear unfazed by the recent drawdown, viewing it as an opportunity to add to their holdings. Glassnode data shared by independent trader Ali Martinez shows the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score at 0.444, suggesting that investors are accumulating more.
The Accumulation Trend Score is an indicator that reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating coins onchain in terms of their BTC holdings.
A positive score indicates that the whales are accumulating more Bitcoin than they distributing, while a negative score indicates the opposite.
According to Glassnode, the spike in trend score indicates a transition from distribution to accumulation across almost all cohorts. This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in October 2023, which preceded Bitcoin’s monumental rise from $25,000 to $49,000, spurred by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This accumulation is backed by data from CryptoQuant, which shows inflows into accumulation addresses spiked on June 10 following Bitcoin’s dip below $54,000.
This accumulation of BTC, particularly by large investors, shows a lack of intention to liquidate their holdings, thereby diminishing market volatility.
Bitcoin price volatility is still absent
From a historical perspective, Bitcoin volatility remains at its lowest levels.
CryptoQuant reveals a net slowdown in trading activity since April, as those taking profit hope for a more substantial breakout to come.
Data from TradingView shows the Bitcoin historical volatility index at 8.86 as of July 11, far below its 2021 peak of 42.7.
All these factors paint the current picture of the Bitcoin market, where the price appears to be stuck in a narrow range.
However, changes always occur very quickly, so market participants should closely monitor on-chain metrics to stay informed.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.