Bitcoin bulls return to the market: BTC may hit the $105,000 mark
Bitcoin futures data shows that bulls are poised to push BTC prices back up to the high of $100,000.
Since dropping to a low of $92,458 on December 23, Bitcoin has rebounded by 6.5%, but has not yet broken through the $98,000 barrier. Looking back to December 17 of last year, Bitcoin set a historical high of $108,275, but subsequently fell sharply by 14.5%. However, traders have regained their confidence.
The Bitcoin derivatives market maintains a neutral to bullish stance, indicating that the severe price fluctuations have not significantly affected market sentiment. This positioning suggests that BTC prices could continue to rise above $105,000.
Looking at the annualized premium of Bitcoin's 2-month futures, which is 12% higher than the spot market, it shows that there is strong demand for buying (leveraged longs). Generally, a premium of 5% to 10% is considered neutral, as sellers will adjust pricing considering the extended settlement period.
Additionally, examining the 25% Delta deviation for Bitcoin's 1-month put options, compared to equivalent call options, the price of puts is 2% lower, a trend that has persisted for two weeks. If whales and market makers expect a pullback, this indicator typically exceeds 6%, showing the premium of put options.
The traditional financial market has also begun to recover recently, with the S&P 500 index reversing losses from December 24, and Bitcoin following suit, rising above $98,000. Furthermore, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen from 4.23% two weeks ago to 4.59%, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns to hold government debt.
An increase in Treasury yields generally signifies rising inflation or government debt expectations, which can diminish the value of existing bonds. However, in this case, scarce assets like stocks and Bitcoin tend to perform better when central banks inject liquidity to stimulate the economy.
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