U.S. stocks had another reversal yesterday (October 10th), with all three major indices achieving slight gains. Influenced by market risk-aversion sentiment, spot gold opened high and continued its upward trend, while U.S. Treasury yields also fell after opening today, with the current 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4.60. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report predicting that global GDP growth will remain at 3% in 2023 and be revised down to 2.9% in 2024; meanwhile, the inflation rate will be adjusted down by 1.3% to 6.5% in 2023 and further reduced to 4.1% in 2024.
In terms of implied volatility, today BTC/ETH distant-end IV both experienced a slide of 1~1.5%. The IV Surface lifted near mid-October, and the overall curve further flattened. The mid-to-distant end RR (Risk Reversal) of ETH has declined again, and it is now significantly lower than the 25% percentile of the past three months.
In terms of trading, looking at the options chain, BTC calls near 28,000 within the week continue to be sold, bringing downward pressure to short-term IV; ETH 24NOV 1700-C continues yesterday's trading enthusiasm, with 41.14K ETH actively bought cumulatively today, and OI increasing by 36.8K. On the other hand, block trading has started to become active. BTC has regained its dominant position in strategy trading with the Bear Put Spread represented by 29DEC 23000 vs 20000. ETH's block trades strategies are focused on 24Nov, 29Dec Long Risky, bottom-picking RR expiring at the end of the year; besides, a custom strategy with a larger amount has also attracted market attention. This strategy bought 5,000 1400-P on 29Dec, while selling 10,000 2100-C to offset part of the cost.
