Pressure on implied volatility in the options market could cause BTC to stagnate or fall slightly.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly topped $70,000 on Monday morning before falling to $66,000, but analysts at cryptocurrency exchange #Bitfinex say the major digital asset could retreat further in the coming days.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, #bitcoin could fall due to significant downward pressure on implied volatility in the options market.
as the weekend approached, implied volatility fell as the market perked up ahead of speeches by former President Donald Trump and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville Bitfinex explained that the decline was due to Bitfinex traders reducing risk and closing positions ahead of the event.
#BTC briefly dipped below $64,000 but continued its uptrend and maintained bullish momentum for several days; BTC faced strong resistance around $68,000-69,000, falling 7.24% over the week. BTC broke above $69,000 on July 29 and reached a new seven-week peak, but retreated strongly in the following hours. Bitfinex believes that the $68,000-$69,000 levels will continue to act as resistance, and BTC could remain below these lines. Forecast.
During the bitcoin conference over the weekend, the market saw a temporary spike in realized volatility while implied volatility continued to decline. According to Bitfinex, such movements are usually seen before options expire, especially when there are no significant events or catalysts.
According to analysts, 61,000 BTC options with a put/call ratio of 0.62 and a notional amount of $3.1 billion expired on Friday amid short-term price catalysts such as the launch of the #BTC exchange-traded fund and the Nashville conference, where short-term exposure to calls and puts is an option. This indicates serious activity in the market.
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