$BTC

let’s say Bitcoin hit $100k.
Remember, everyone already knows the price of Bitcoin can drop 75–90% in a year. It’s happened multiple times. People say ‘oh it ALWAYS goes higher’, but…
Well, recall that MK told everyone ‘all Bitcoin bull runs are 17x’, so we’ve already established that we can’t trust that.
So, let’s say you bought in at $800. (Because, for some reason, literally everyone who has ever bought Bitcoin sold at the bottom and NOBODY bought at $20k. They only sold at $20k. I don’t know how this works, but boy, every Bitcoiner I’ve ever met insists this is the case.)
You didn’t sell at $20,000, and maybe you’re feeling upset about that. After all, you could have sold at $20k and rebought at $7k, or even $3k. You kind of want to pay off your house, or any of the other myriad things.
And you realize something. $100,000 has six digits. SIX. This is two things: One, an impetus to sell, and two, ‘everyone knows Bitcoin can drop’.
The sellers have reason to get out RIGHT NOW to rebuy the dip.
The buyers have reason to be patient and watch for the dip.
Even in the hellworld where Bitcoin somehow manages to get as high as $100k, it will be immediately followed by a tremendous crash.

$BTC

$BTC

Thursday, good morning to a new day!
After waking up, the market has collapsed again. As expected, the price of Bitcoin has significantly dropped again. After a slight rebound to around 104900 in the early morning, it directly fell back to touch the 100300 level, resulting in a nearly 5000-point decline. In the early morning update, I suggested shorting Bitcoin around 105000, aiming for a pullback to 102000. The strategy is sound, but the extent exceeded expectations this time. Anyone who followed my strategy should have made some profit.
I have been emphasizing that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are priced in, the data release could put pressure on the market. As expected, during the Federal Reserve meeting at 3 AM, Powell's speech was a huge shock, delivering a strong blow to the market. Next year, rate cuts may slow down, and a slow reduction could harm the economy and employment situation, which would have profound implications for the cryptocurrency space, directly causing the price of Bitcoin to plunge. Currently, from the four-hour chart, the downside support has been broken, and the Bollinger Bands are showing a widening downward extension, indicating ample space for further declines. There are no clear signs of a bottom yet, so in the morning analysis, we should slightly allow for a rebound and continue to short.
On Thursday morning, Bitcoin rebounds in the 101000-101500 area for shorting, looking at 99600, and then the previous strong support at the 98000 level. During the pullback phase, remember to defend well when catching rebounds. It is safer to mostly participate in shorts. Recently, the market has been very volatile, so if you can't read it well, stick to the strategy!