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欧洲太平洋资产管理公司首席经济学家彼得·希夫最近对美联储的政策提出了严厉批评，并警告称，未来一年通胀将进一步上升，可能给美国经济带来长期的负面影响。希夫通过社交媒体平台X发文，强烈表达了他对美联储策略的担忧，认为其行动将使通胀问题更加严重，并指出，未来降息的动机更可能是为了救助资产市场和银行，而非真正控制通胀。
美联储降息：背后的隐忧与未来风险
美联储最近将基准利率下调四分之一个百分点，这是今年的第三次降息。然而，随着降息步伐的放缓，美联储对2025年的经济预测也发生了显著变化。美联储将2025年经济增长的通胀预期从2.1%上调至2.5%，同时将利率预期从9月的3.4%调整至3.9%。
鲍威尔的矛盾言辞：降息放缓与通胀压力
美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上辩护称，降息步伐的放缓是因为通胀压力仍然存在。然而，希夫对鲍威尔的言论提出质疑，认为美联储的行动与言辞之间存在明显的不一致。希夫指出，美联储早期的降息过于急功近，利率从未达到真正的限制性水平。现在进一步降息，将可能加剧通胀压力，而非缓解。
“2%通胀目标？不可能实现”
希夫特别反驳了鲍威尔关于通胀将在两年内回到2%目标的乐观预测。他坚信，通胀率将保持在较高水平，甚至可能比当前还要更高。“两年内通胀率不可能回到2%。它可能会更高。”希夫如此评论道。

赤字与财政政策：美国经济的不稳定根源
除了对美联储政策的批评，希夫还对美国不断扩大的财政赤字提出警告。根据最新的财政数据显示，美国政府的赤字在2025财年前两个月已经飙升至6240亿美元，创下历史同期纪录。希夫认为，持续的高支出将耗尽美国实体经济的活力，可能导致长期的不稳定。

特朗普面临的挑战：脆弱经济环境与财政风险
希夫还预测，特朗普政府可能会继承一个经济低迷、金融风险加剧的复杂局面。随着明年1月特朗普即将上任，他可能面临一个脆弱的经济环境，无法轻松应对赤字和经济下行的压力。
特朗普的政策与经济风险：能源市场与债务问题的双重挑战
希夫还对特朗普在国际能源市场的策略提出了批评，特别是特朗普建议欧盟增加对美国石油和天然气的购买。希夫认为，这将导致美国国内能源供应减少，进而推高能源价格，增加家庭经济负担。此外，希夫还批评特朗普在竞选中提出的“削减成本”政策，认为这种政策可能使美国国会无限制地增加债务，从而加剧债务危机。

结语：美联储与政府策略的长期影响
希夫的警告并非无的放矢。随着美联储政策的转向和财政赤字的持续扩大，未来几年美国经济面临的挑战将变得更加复杂。特朗普政府的上任是否能够带来经济复苏，仍然值得关注。我们将继续跟进这些经济变局，并为您提供最新分析。
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