Mechanism Capital's founder and partner Andrew Kang warned about the potential impact of the upcoming spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approval in the US on the price of #Ethereum (ETH). Kang believes that unless Ethereum develops a compelling way to improve its economic model, the launch of these ETFs could lead to a significant drop in ETH's price, resulting in a "Sell the News" scenario upon final approval.
Major Crash Prediction for ETH
Currently, ETH is trading around $3,400. Kang predicts that ETH could drop to $2,400 following the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in the US. This represents a roughly 30% decrease from current prices. This prediction is based on the assessment that ETH has seen less institutional interest compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and that there is little incentive to turn to spot Ethereum ETFs.
Kang expressed his views in a June 23 article, arguing that the upside potential of spot Ethereum ETFs is limited. He expects ETH's price to range between $2,400 and $3,000 after the launch of spot ETFs. This marks a significant decline for ETH, which previously surpassed $4,000 in March when Bitcoin reached its all-time high and just before the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Ethereum ETFs.
Furthermore, Kang anticipates that the expected inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs will be much smaller compared to spot Bitcoin ETFs. The expert estimates that these ETFs will attract only 15% of the flows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $5 billion in new fund inflows in the first six months post-launch, excluding spot form conversions. In contrast, Kang expects spot Ethereum ETFs to attract around $840 million in the same period.
Kang emphasized that the crypto community's expectations for spot Ethereum ETFs are overly optimistic and not aligned with the actual preferences in the traditional finance world. He added that the expected benefits of the ETF are already priced into ETH's current value.
Ethereum's future as a cash flow generator seemed more promising during the decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT hype. However, this momentum has not continued, and according to Kang, ETH now resembles an overvalued technology stock. With annual revenue of $1.5 billion and a 300x price-to-sales ratio, along with post-inflation negative earnings, analysts may struggle to justify the altcoin king's price to traditional investors.
Additionally, the removal of the staking option from spot Ethereum ETFs submitted to the SEC could deter investors from turning to spot ETFs. While institutions like BlackRock are exploring real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum, Kang remains skeptical about its immediate impact on ETH's price.
Kang also added that the ETH/BTC trading pair could drop from the current 0.054 level to 0.035 within the next year. However, he noted that Bitcoin's rise to $100,000 within the next six to nine months could push ETH to an all-time high.
Positive Outlook on ETFs Also Exists
On the other hand, there are those with a positive outlook despite Kang's negative perspective. Industry analyst Patrick Scott, also known as Dynamo DeFi, expects a similar directional movement to spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, Scott does not expect ETH's price to double under the influence of spot ETFs.
Moreover, asset management firm VanEck holds a more optimistic view, predicting that spot Ethereum ETFs could help raise the altcoin king's price to $22,000 by 2030.
