✒️ The Supply in Profit indicator represents the percentage of the circulating supply of BTC that is in profit. When the BTC price surpasses the previous cycle's all-time high (ATH), this indicator approaches nearly 100%, as most investors would be seeing profits. Generally, during a bull market, this indicator maintains a level of 90-100% for approximately 6-12 months.
To make a clear benchmark, we used the ultra-long-term moving average (1,500 DMA) and ±1 standard deviation (SD). Given that BTC undergoes halving every four years, we set one cycle period to approximately four years (1,500 days). The +1 SD range forms between 85-95% of the indicator. If the Supply in Profit exceeds the +1 SD band, it is interpreted as being in a major bull market.
Interestingly, before the start of each major bull market (indicated by the green box 🟩), there was a brief precursor period (indicated by the orange box 🟨) where the indicator surpassed the +1 SD band. This pattern has been observed again in the current cycle. The combined duration of the precursor and major bull market periods are as follows:
☑️ 2015-2018: 580 Days
☑️ 2019-2022: 280 Days
☑️ 2023-Present: 180 Days + ?
From the last two cycles, we can see that the bullish trend lasted approximately 300-600 days. If we observe a similar pattern in the current cycle, we can expect the upward momentum to continue for at least another three months.
📌 With both BTC and ETH spot ETFs now approved, and if capital continues to flow in, this is not merely wishful thinking.
Written by Yonsei_dent