Last Friday, positive news came from the macro level. The U.S. non-farm employment data for April was significantly lower than expected, and the hourly wage growth also cooled, strengthening the market’s bet on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. U.S. bond yields fell significantly, with two-year and ten-year yields now at 4.791% and 4.474% respectively.

On the other hand, the geopolitical crisis has eased. The Israeli Prime Minister said he is willing to suspend fighting in Gaza in exchange for hostages. If an agreement is successfully reached, it will bring positive news to the risk markets.

Source: Signalplus, Economic Calendar

Source: Investing

In the context of a rebound in risk market sentiment, the cryptocurrency sector has also received some major good news: GBTC’s Flow has finally reversed, achieving positive inflows. This indicates a weakening of BTC short-selling forces and reduced selling pressure. Looking at the coin price, since last Friday, the market has been gradually realizing the macroeconomic benefits and the expectations for liquidity injections driven by the dollar. BTC has risen from 59,000 all the way to around 65,000, fully recovering the losses from the previous week.

Source: Farside Investors； TradingView

In the field of options, the recent increase in actual volatility has driven up the front-end implied volatility. Currently, the implied volatility levels for BTC and ETH are around 56% and 65% respectively. ETH generally exhibits a significantly higher Vol Premium compared to BTC. The front-end implied forward IV for ETH includes the uncertainty associated with the U.S. SEC’s decisions regarding the VanEck Ethereum Spot ETF (May 23) and the Grayscale Ethereum Futures (May 30).

Source: Deribit （As of 6 MAY 8:00 UTC）

Source: SignalPlus

In terms of trading, in mid-May, the selling pressure on bullish ETH options is strong, mainly concentrated on the 3600-C for MAY 17 24 and MAY 24 24. For BTC, traders are selling put options near 62000/61000 in the short term, showing confidence in this rebound, while also purchasing a large amount of OTM call options for MAY 31, optimistic about BTC’s upward potential this month.

Data Source: Deribit, Overall distribution of ETH trading, strong selling pressure on bullish options in mid-May.

Data Source: Deribit, Overall distribution of BTC tradings.

Source: Deribit Block TradeSource: Deribit Block Trade