In an uptrend after every leg up price stabilizes within a narrow range, reflecting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.

It often forms patterns like flags or rectangles/ range, which usually lead's to upside breakout & act as a continuation pattern.

However there can be fakeout's in each of those patterns before price takes another leg up.

But if price consolidates and breaks down, failing to reclaim, it simply means the consolidation was not a re-accumulation but distribution.

In a strong bull trend, if the price is distributing even after bullish news and narratives, it simply means that the buyers are exhausted, which might lead to a deeper retracement.

Let's look at both the scenarios with examples :



# Scenario 1 : Consolidation Breakdown (Distribution)

In the left chart if you notice - Price breaks out above the previous ATH, consolidates for a few weeks but fails to hold above it, leading to a deeper retracement till 0.618 and even till 0.786 fib level in some Instances.

# Scenario 2 : Consolidation Breakout (Re-accumulation)

In the right chart - Price breaks out above the previous ATH & consolidates for a few weeks followed by a strong upside continuation.

If you notice, there were wick fakeouts on intraday, but the price didn't lose support on the closing basis.

Now let's look at Bitcoin with both the scenarios

If you look at the Bitcoin chart, we are having a similar consolidation above the ATH. This could be either re-accumulation or distribution.

The price did break down below the consolidation range on intraday, but it seems like price will reclaim the $60k area before the weekly close.

In that case, scenario 2 is likely to play out as wicks below the range are noise, and the consolidation is most likely re-accumulation before another leg up.

Only a close below the ATH would be bearish and could lead to a deeper retracement till the 0.618 area and continuation of the bull run might get delayed for a few months.

However, distributions in a strong bullish trend are rare.

In either of the two scenarios, as long as the HTF structure is bullish, the trend will likely continue in the direction of the main trend, which is bullish

#CryptoWatchMay2024