Yesterday (1 MAY), the U.S. ADP employment figures for April increased by 192,000, exceeding the expected 175,000, marking the largest increase since July 2023. During the FOMC meeting early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced as expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The meeting acknowledged the recent unfavorable progress in inflation, but Powell ultimately made a dovish statement, indicating that it is unlikely to raise interest rates at the next meeting, and that delaying rate cuts is also appropriate.
Source: Economic Calendar
In terms of cryptocurrencies, the recent risk market has fostered a certain level of risk-averse sentiment under the pressure of the U.S. interest rates being “higher and longer”, resulting in a substantial outflow of funds from ETFs. Concurrently, there have been significant sell-offs by whales in the spot market, collectively causing a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices over the past two days. Analysts suggest that this round of price sell-off may be a profit-taking move under macroeconomic pressures, including early ETF entrants and holders who bought BTC during the past two years’ downturn, who are reducing their holdings.
Source: Farside Investors；TradingView
After the Federal Reserve meeting, the IV at the front end of the options decreased rapidly within the day, and the term volatility curve was flatter. The near-term Skew remains low, indicating the market’s short-term panic hedging sentiment. In terms of trading, the implied volatility level of BTC for May 31 dropped under the dual pressure of Put and Call. ETH’s main transactions were more concentrated on this expiration date. From the bulk records, in addition to the sale of Outright Calls, there were transactions selling short-term May 17 to buy May 31, representing a butterfly spread strategy.
Source: Deribit （As of 2 MAY 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, Overall distribution of BTC/ETH trading
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
