Wake up, don't let yourself be put to sleep again! Onchain or technical analysis in this market section? Both are not useful at this moment. WHY?

Reasons 🤔👇

1/ Onchain:

It only reveals transactions on DEX. Market makers (MMs) set up orders on the exchange but don't execute them immediately. They accumulate over time. Have you thought about that? MMs are smart, they are not stupid. Every time they transfer a small amount, they exit the DEX to avoid being monitored by observers. Now they dump the tokens on CEX, good luck trying to track them. Remember, CEXs are centralized platforms, and they control the data. No exchange shows their customers' wallets publicly, just like banks. Security is their top priority.

*Key point: MMs transfer and accumulate tokens gradually over a long period, and at this 70s level, it's been long enough. If you don't believe it, look at what long-term holders (LTHs) are doing with their tokens under the chart below...

2/ Technical analysis (TA)

TA doesn't work well here. It keeps trapping traders consecutively. The strategy of DCA based on TA to find good entry points can still be used.

But forget about using TA for long and short positions because MMs are squeezing the price to make traders set very tight stop losses on both sides. They can easily trigger both stops simultaneously for convenience. Don't dream about that, it's all crap, not sweet at all.

So how can we know the upcoming direction?

Follow the larger financial markets related to commodities and metals.

Let's take gold as a reference (Gold always leads the waves of all investment and speculative assets, always runs ahead of $BTC , a perfect indicator).

Gold ($XAU) continues to be continuously bought by Asian investors.

A very pessimistic scenario is projected for the entire economy.

With money flowing strongly into gold like this, BTC will benefit in the short term.

But in the medium term, there will be profit-taking sell-offs when the US dollar rises too sharply due to the FED continuing to hold interest rates.

This wave will be the final upward wave of BTC before entering a bloodbath period on the threshold of the halving event.

Look at the political and macroeconomic story

The Asian economy is very strong, and pressure from China is weighing on Europe and the US. Now the Fed has two options:

1) Lower interest rates early to help the economy in the short term, but in return, the possibility of inflation returning in Q3 will increase.

2) Continue to hold interest rates until the US economy collapses into a recession and continuously pump money to soothe the market. The result will be a stagnant market for about 2-3 months, then a quick recovery when cheap money flows into the hands of banks and financial institutions.

Just long and short as you like because no matter what, you will get wrecked.

Only holding spot at this time and knowing where the new stop may be can help you live well.

BE LUCK!