Bitcoin to 200k… thoughts?

Bitcoin to 200k

On the day of the 2020 halving, bitcoin sat at $8,700. It went on to do a 7-8x to hit its ATH close to 18 months later before crashing down to the previously bull runs ATH. Returns on each bull run have diminished as time goes on, and it would also make sense that the actual length of the run is shorter.

My guess: 180-240k Bitcoin in the spring of 2025 (3-4x from now). After, it’ll crash (at least to 100k) very briefly and then start slowly running up indefinitely, although I do think this will be the last real bull run and we see far less volatility even before/after the 2028 halving. $BTC #TrendingTopic #BTC #TradeNTell

This is really just using past data, witch we obviously don’t have much of and it’s questionable how reliable it is anyway. You can estimate inflows that could originate from other asset classes and such (thinking HNWI and S&P companies putting 1% of liquid assets into Bitcoin, 10% of the gold market cap and different things like that) but that stuff is insanely difficult to estimate on a specific timeframe so it makes more sense to me to do something like I mentioned above - although I tend to come out to similar numbers using both lines of thinking.

What do you think?