Smart Money
Smart money on FXS and RBX + a promising new asset

Dec 22, 2023 07:48 14 min read
Even with crypto market volatility, smart money trends can reveal promising opportunities.
We explore recent developments for FXS and RBX, from halving impacts to future catalysts.
But our journey doesn't stop there – we also have our sights set on an emerging token that's catching the attention of savvy investors.
Re-evaluating the FXS halving trade

On December 8, we wrote a report about Frax Finance and it's halving event planned for December 20. The halving occurred on Wednesday, but the price has not responded as we had hoped.
One thing we have noticed dragging FXS down during this halving is its close correlation to ETH, which acts as a high-beta asset (meaning that when ETH goes up, FXS tends to go up even more).
However, recently, as ETH began to underperform going into December after initially being more closely correlated with BTC, this has had a negative impact on FXS.

For FXS to truly shine, it must decouple from ETH and establish its price discovery.
Alternatively, we would need to witness ETH gaining support and outperforming BTC once more, which appears unlikely until the BTC ETF launch.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make is your full responsibility.
Are our whales still holding?
Our first whale address, likely belonging to the crypto trading firm Amber Group, did not view the halving as a 'sell the news' event and has added to its FXS position.
It bought another 100,000 FXS worth $876,990 on December 15, 2023, at 15:36:59 UTC on Binance. This was added to the tracker wallet, increasing its total FXS position to 811,501.50 FXS worth $6,720,268.
Our other whale wallet, likely belonging to DragonFly Capital, has yet to make any changes to its position so far.
This should be more of a long-term investment for them rather than a trade, as the funds are stored in a BitGo custody wallet.
When would the FXS halving trade be invalidated?
