Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are fighting for $100,000 as the first full trading week of 2025 gets underway.
A strong weekly close is followed by near 2025 highs for BTC/USD, with the $100,000 mark in sight.
The six-figure line in the sand is increasingly important for traders, playing host to large amounts of liquidity ripe for squeezing.
Macroeconomic data brings fresh risks for crypto amid mixed policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin retail investors are still on holiday despite the BTC price recovery.
Short-term holders are slowly adding profitability, but the euphoria that accompanied the trip to $108,000 has firmly cooled.
Bitcoin “deeper correction” fears linger
Bitcoin saw solid performance following its latest weekly close at around $98,300, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Up 1% on the day at the time of writing, BTC/USD managed to hit $99,857 on Bitstamp — its highest since Dec. 26.
For market observers, the implications of this have not gone unnoticed.
“Long-term price chart of $BTCUSD Cup with handle price target (conservative measurement) is standing at 137K,” popular trader and analyst Aksel Kibar reiterated in his latest post on X.
BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X
Popular trader Cheds Trading meanwhile eyed a potential invalidation of a head and shoulders top playing out on daily timeframes.
Source: Cheds Trading
Fellow trader SuperBro saw Bitcoin's potential to beat its impressive run over Q4. This is thanks to BTC/USD nearly reaching its 10-week simple moving average (SMA) during its retracement from new all-time highs.
“Each time the 10 MA has been hit after a strong move, it has been followed by an even stronger move,” SuperBro wrote in an X thread.
“Also note the next leg up has not only been stronger, it has also been faster. A tall order in the face of that monthly candle, but very possible if we squeeze through it.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: SuperBro/X
Others reserved the possibility of a deeper BTC price correction to come — potentially retracing most of the Q4 breakout.
“The 21-Day MA is headed for a Death Cross with the 50-Day MA on the Bitcoin Daily chart,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, warned into the weekly close.
“Even though it is technically a lagging indicator, historically, Death Crosses tend to develop into more downside. But that doesn't have to be the case here.”
Alan said that holding the 21-day SMA, currently at $96,957, is now key to avoiding the bearish scenario.
“If BTC can hold above the 50-Day MA and rally back to ATH territory it will be a short term dip, however, if price dips below the 21-Day MA this could develop into a deeper correction,” he summarized.
“If the latter scenario comes into play, I'm prepared to see the CME Gap filled and support tested at the consolidation range ~$76k.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
$100,000 back in the spotlight
For Bitcoin traders, the $100,000 mark now has fresh short-term significance — and is thus key to advancing the bull market.
Despite mixed opinions over both its technical and psychological importance, $100,000 is currently the main battleground for Bitcoin bulls to conquer.
Liquidation levels across exchanges currently center on the six-figure boundary, making it the most significant nearby BTC price point.
“A lot of liquidity at $100K,” monitoring resource CoinGlass noted on Jan. 6, implying that a short squeeze or other liquidity-hunting event could result.
BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap for Binance. Source: CoinGlass/X
CoinGlass data nonetheless shows that traders were broadly prepared for a test of $100,000 resistance over the weekend, with 24-hour liquidations totaling a mere $26 million.
Material Indicators’ Alan meanwhile showed consistent buying pressure across order classes, with smaller buyers joining whales in increasing exposure.
“FireCharts Binned CVD shows all order classes banging the Bitcoin buy button,” he reported on X on Jan. 5, referring to one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
BTC/USDT order book liquidity data for Binance. Source: Keith Alan/X
Among those eyeing a price move into the high-liquidity $100,000 zone is popular trader XO.
“Key focus remains the 100k mid-level as the key inflection point,” he confirmed to X followers, suggesting that that event could be followed by a fresh comedown.
“Retest of the demand zone is for longing imo should it setup again,” he added alongside a chart with a $90,000 downside target.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: XO/X
Fed minutes due in tense macro climate
Crypto and risk assets are on edge as the 2025 macroeconomic calendar gets underway.
Inflation is back in the spotlight, and with it, rising unemployment — a classic recipe for so-called “stagflation,” which could spell trouble for traders.
Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will enact further interest rate cuts are waning after December’s decidedly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The minutes of that meeting are due this week, potentially bringing back the sense of foreboding that punctured Bitcoin’s solid gains.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 0.25% cut at the next FOMC at 9.1%.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
“Labor market data is in the spotlight ahead of the January 29th Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its latest X coverage.
Along with the Fed minutes comes the December jobs report on Jan. 10, a day after initial jobless claims.
Kobeissi conversely pointed out declining US bank reserves as a potential precursor to a fresh round of liquidity injections — quantitative easing, or QE, taking the place of quantitative tightening (QT).
In the week ending Jan. 1, reserves declined by $326 billion to their lowest levels since October 2020.
“Meanwhile, the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet (QT) at an average pace of $60 billion PER MONTH,” it continued.
“Is the end of QT coming soon?”
US bank reserves data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Retail investors forget about Bitcoin
Bitcoin retail investors are all but “gone” at just 10% below all-time highs.
Examining transaction volume traditionally associated with the retail investor cohort, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals a sea change in participation.
“Retail investors disappeared as quickly as they arrived!” contributor Darkfost summarized in a Quicktake blog post on Jan. 5.
The rolling 30-day change in retail-sized transaction volumes — up to $10,000 — has declined significantly since BTC/USD reached its current record highs of $108,000 last month.
“As BTC approached $100K, retail demand variation surged by over 30%,” the post explains.
“Historically, when retail demand variation exceeds 15%, it often precedes a local top. This was exactly what we observed after BTC reached its new all-time high at $108K.”
Bitcoin retail investor volume 30-day change (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s return below the $100,000 mark was accompanied by a 16% dive in the 30-day metric.
“When this variation falls below -10% it means that retail interest drops significantly, it often creates an ideal buying opportunity as a bullish reaction has frequently followed,” Darkfost reports.
While the retail investors’ reaction to any new BTC price upside remains to be seen, CryptoQuant notes that “measured” increases in demand can have a cathartic impact on performance.
As Cointelegraph reported, it took the retail segment many months to react to the changing trend landscape as BTC/USD rose to beat its old all-time highs of $73,800 from March last year.
Speculators at a crossroads
Another Bitcoin investor segment, the so-called short-term holders (STHs), is meanwhile at a critical point.
Profitability for STH entities, defined as those hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less, is hovering around the breakeven point.
As Cointelegraph reported previously, the trip to $108,000 offered STHs significant return on investment, but this all but disappeared on the subsequent comedown to near $90,000.
Now, at just below the $100,000 level, STH profits hang in the balance.
“A drop in profitability for short-term holders often provides a clear signal of weakening market demand and bearish sentiment over the short and medium term,” CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk warned in another Quicktake post at the weekend.
“Therefore, under current conditions, this suggests an elevated likelihood of price corrections driven by reduced demand and subdued performance.”
Bitcoin STH profitability (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows the impact on profitability since $108,000, with STHs nonetheless still far from the losses commonly seen during market downturns.
Additional CryptoQuant data further reveals the mixed fortunes of “new money” recently entering Bitcoin thanks to choppy price action.
Bitcoin investor profitability data. Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
