Macroeconomic view
1. China has announced that it will rise the deficit in its balance sheet showing us that there will be more QE in China. Of course it's good for short term as it'll add liquidity. But remember, this thing doesn't look resilient in the long run as you know that the real estate market in China is now collapsing and at -80% decline in price.
2. Because of this, US10yr bond is now having an instant rising showing "believe" in the US government performance over the next 10 year. This thing could also lead into 2 scenarios which are as below.
- Scenario 1
If inflation rises faster than bond yields, it'll be good for the equity market as investors will be more into the risk on asset as the equity market will be good as the hedge against inflation.
- Scenario 2
It'll be a problem here if the yield is rising up too fast as it'll be higher opportunity cost for investors to hold equities or other risk on asset.
I personally believe that the inflation might increase faster than the yields in which I also believe that the risk on environment will be maintained for at least the next few months.
But for long run, once again I see that the overall macroeconomic is less resilient right now.
China stimulus plan is also good for the short term liquidity injection but long run, again is not that resilient.