Last Update: 2024-12-13 UTC
⭐Tokenomics
Market Cap (MC): $16B
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $32.27B
Total Supply: 5.11B TON
Max Supply: ∞ 🙄
Supply in Circulation: 2.55B TON - 49.9% of Max Supply
👉Token Unlocks
Although Tonstat declares 0.6% annual inflation rate, up-to-date data shows lower rates for a year. However, I see inconsistencies between the MC, supply and price values on CMC and similar platforms.
👀Inflation
(T0) 2024-04-12
MC: ~$25.17B
Price: ~7.25 USDT
(T1) 2024-12-13
MC: ~$16B
Price: ~6.30 USDT
(T1) - (T0)
MC Change: ~ -36%
Price Change: ~ -13%
What Should the Price Be If There Was No Token Inflation During This Period (That is, if there was no increase in supply)?
~4.64 USDT
Since the current price is higher than this, we are talking about deflation here, not inflation, but I cannot confirm the amount of change here with the number of tokens burned.
This topic requires deeper research, but for now I will stick to technical analysis and try to give reasonable targets within safe limits. If you want to contribute to the topic, you can state it in the comments.
👀Since there is no time/time series analysis in target price studies, try to reflect the inflation difference in the period in which you are looking at the relevant prices.
⭐Correlation with $BTC / Category Major(s)
Does the coin/token correlate with BTC during BTC uptrends and downtrends?
It showed a good correlation during the rise period at the beginning of the year, and then showed a relatively more positive divergence compared to BTC.
However, after the legal process difficulties experienced by Pavel Durov, this correlation was partially disrupted and has not yet regained the levels before the August 5th decline.
💰BTC Pair
TON/BTC pair is showing a weak outlook. The green box has worked well as support so far, but if a daily/weekly close is seen below here, it would be good to stay away until we see a positive signal.
In order for the pair to break the declining resistance, it needs to make a weekly close above the red box and make a new Higher High (HH).
⭐Price Analysis
👉Recent Period
While the internal structure was in an uptrend, during the flash crash, trend support broken.
Then the green box got support from the bullish order block and bounced, but it needs to break the red box quickly.
Otherwise, if it remains as a retest of the broken support, the decline can continue to the level I marked below.
Daily closings below that level are the reason for escape.
💵Price Targets
👉The project lost power due to situations unrelated to technicality while trying to do good things.
👉It can gain power with the break of the red box I shared in the previous chart and this can provide upward momentum by bringing a golden cross in the daily. Bullish appearance occurs above that level.
👉If it is below 5.75, I look bearish and stay away, because it will have made a new Lower Low (LL) while it has not yet gained full power.
👉It is important to follow the daily closings above and below these levels.
👉Although the project was in a promising situation in the pre-trouble period, it may not be easy if it is not impossible for the market cap to make large and giant leaps.
👉For this reason, I am giving technical target levels by keeping them reasonable. If it gains hype in the future and reaches our targets quickly, I can share the technical levels above them.
💥Cautions
Nevertheless, remember that during the hottest times of the bull season, very great levels can be reached with #FOMO, but these levels cannot be maintained for long and very sharp corrections are experienced (try to understand by looking at old bull peaks). Manage your risk with these in mind and wait for healthy corrections without increasing your purchases in expensive areas.
My posts are only technical and fundamental comments of mine and express my conclusions based on my own experience.Since there is no time/time series analysis in target price studies, there is no answer to the questions "When?" or "What will the price be on this date?"
Sharing/analyzing a coin/token does not mean that I like or dislike it, think it will be successful or unsuccessful, support it or not, invest/trade or stay away from it. I analyze it in line with requests and share my individual opinions.
None of my posts or comments are within the scope of investment/financial consultancy and should definitely not be understood in this sense.
You should manage your risk by considering your own financial situation for your investments and trades, do your own research and then take action (DYOR). If necessary, you can even request professional support from authorized persons and institutions to provide consultancy.
👋Hey!
Unlike my social media posts, in addition to majors, here I'm planning to analyze your #altcoins with medium and low market caps too! I'll provide mid-to-long term price targets for the bull season. 🔥
If you are interested, don't forget to follow and share the #altcoins that interest you in the comments! 👊
Bull Season Price Targets Series: Requests from Followers - INDEX
