The oil market outlook for 2025 is looking interesting, with several factors at play. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by over 1 million barrels per day in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency.¹ This surplus is likely to put downward pressure on crude prices.
*Price Forecasts:*
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $78 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, before falling to $74 per barrel in the second half of the year.²
- Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $76 per barrel in 2025.
- The World Bank predicts that Brent oil prices will average $73 per barrel in 2025, with a potential decline to $66 per barrel if OPEC+ reverses its production cuts.³
*Key Factors to Watch:*
- _Geopolitical Tensions:_ Any escalation of conflicts in oil-producing countries could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices.
- _OPEC+ Production Cuts:_ The reversal of OPEC+'s voluntary production cuts could lead to a surplus in the market, putting downward pressure on prices.
- _Global Demand Growth:_ The pace of global demand growth, particularly in China, will play a crucial role in shaping the oil market outlook.
Overall, the oil market outlook for 2025 is expected to be shaped by a combination of factors, including global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions.