Predictions about Bitcoin in comparison to Trump’s win and four years in office remain. Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera and former Goldman Sachs Group bond trader, estimates that Bitcoin will reach $740,000 by April 2028.
Morehead established Pantera in 2003. The firm was initially a global hedge fund. It, however, shifted its focus in 2013 when it introduced the first crypto fund, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund.
Morehead pointed out in his post that Pantera started making investments at the low print of the last 11 years. He added that then Bitcoin’s first investment was selling for $65.
He argues that Bitcoin is the “first global currency since gold” and the “first borderless payment system ever.” He also wrote a letter to investors more than ten years ago.
Source: Pantera
Morehead said, “I still passionately believe what I wrote eleven years ago.”
According to Morehead’s concept, Bitcoin has been on a trendline that will push it to $740,000 by April 2028 if it continues its current growth rate. He explained that Bitcoin has “nearly” doubled every year, for a compounded gain rate of approximately 88% since Pantera began investing.
An analysis of the factors contributing to the $740,000 prediction
According to the Pantera founder, it’s “not an inconceivable number, relative to $500 trillion in financial assets,” He explained that at $740,000, Bitcoin will have a market cap of $15 trillion.
He went on to explain that Bitcoin’s recent rise, during which it regularly broke through all-time highs to almost $100,000, is part of the good economic outlook. Bitcoin has driven many financial markets up since the election. He added that the election of Donald Trump as president has given people hope that clear rules for crypto would be good for the whole entity.
Morehead said, “We believe the broader industry will benefit greatly from the first pro-blockchain U.S. president in office.”
“In our view, blockchain’s success is in the best interest of the nation, and we believe everyone in Congress will eventually adopt a neutral or pro-blockchain stance – it’s beginning to happen. Blockchain’s 15-year regulatory headwinds are now turning into tailwinds.” Pantera founder Dan Morehead
Morehead said that he has observed that with Bitcoin’s present market cap of around $2 trillion, it would be the sixth biggest company compared to publicly traded ones, surpassing Meta.
Pantera Bitcoin reported that the post-election surge pushed the fund an additional 30% upward. After accounting for fees and expenses, the fund has achieved a remarkable return of 131,165%.
Source: Pantera
Pantera reported that between 2013 and 2015, we acquired 2% of the global Bitcoin supply. They believe they still have several more years of impressive returns ahead.
The probability of Bitcoin exceeding the $100,000 mark
Almost 50% of Bitcoin options traders are positioning themselves for a six-figure price by the close of 2024, with some speculating a rise to $150,000, even in light of the recent dip to $90,000, according to on-chain data.
Nick Forster, founder of the on-chain options DeFi protocol, said that the probability of BTC breaking the $100,000 barrier has increased to 45% from last week’s 34%, and there is a newly established 4% chance of exceeding $150,000.
Reports say that the market has very few sellers. The data indicates that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin has a 68% chance of retracing to $81,493 or rising to $115,579. Meanwhile, there’s only a 5% chance of it dropping below $70,000 to $68,429 or reaching as high as $137,645.
Although not all observers agree, according to an analyst, Bitcoin’s association with the global M2 predicts it could drop by 20% soon. He argued that Bitcoin’s price may go back up to $70,000 if it maintains its historically close connection with the total amount of money in circulation around the world.
Analyst Joe Consorti said, “So far, this correlation is shockingly accurate.”
Source: Bitcoin and Global M2 correlation graph. Source: X/Joe Consorti
Consorti said in an X post that Bitcoin has tracked the global M2, which is an estimate of cash and short-term bank accounts, with a “70-day lag.” There has been a link between the growth of the M2 money supply and past Bitcoin bull runs.
The value of Bitcoin has gone up along with the M2 money supply. This is because a rise in M2 often means that inflationary forces are building, which makes investors look for riskier assets like Bitcoin to protect themselves against inflation.
Market commentator David Quintieri, however, wrote, “Bitcoin is too volatile to track it against anything.”
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