This year, Bitcoin has seen one of the biggest price pumps in its history. Currently ranked as the seventh most valuable global asset, Bitcoin also rivals the market capitalizations of the world’s largest corporations.
With BTC price currently traded at almost $100,000, most analysts anticipate the price to exceed this level.
Looking ahead, these dynamics suggest that Bitcoin could see substantial growth in 2025, driven by a mix of macroeconomic conditions, institutional participation and seasonal market behavior.
Bitcoin price prediction for January 2025
Peter Brandt, a well-known trader and market analyst, has highlighted two consistent features of past Bitcoin bull market cycles:
Dominant Parabolic Trends
Each bull market has been marked by a parabolic price increase. However, the strength of these parabolic movements has declined with each cycle.
Major Corrections
After breaking out of its parabolic rise, Bitcoin has historically experienced a sharp correction, typically around 80% (±5%) from its peak.
Brandt has shared the current parabolic profile for Bitcoin, noting that while the pattern is clear, the exact trajectory may evolve as the market progresses.
If the chart proves to be right, the Bitcoin rally might continue in January. However, the chart also suggests a substantial correction in 2025.
Could there be Bitcoin bubble?
Bitcoin’s price has been conditionally “overheated” in the past when it exceeded its 200-day moving average by 100% or more. This wasn’t the case in March, so there was no “bubble burst.” Instead, the market experienced a typical correction for this volatile asset, followed by a trend resumption.
Currently, the gap between the price and the 200-day moving average is even smaller than it was in March — 40% compared to 70%. This suggests that there’s little reason to label the current market a “bubble.”
The Bitcoin Seasonality chart currently indicates that BTC is nearing a local peak, coinciding with the $100,000 level. This development is further underscored by a sharp 16% one-day drop in MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares, a reliable leading indicator during Bitcoin's recent rally.
While this alignment does not ensure a correction, the combination of these factors suggests an increased probability of a temporary pause in Bitcoin's upward momentum. If a correction occurs, it is expected to be a precursor to continued growth, which may extend well into 2025.
Bitcoin mining and hash rate
Bitcoin hashrate refers to the overall computational power that miners contribute to the Bitcoin network. It represents the total number of calculations (hashes) that the network can perform every second to validate and secure transactions.
A hash is an alphanumeric code generated randomly, and hashing involves attempting to guess that code or something very close to it.
The hash rate represents the number of guesses per second made by computers on the network, whether it is from a single miner, a mining pool, or the entire network combined.
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A higher hashrate indicates a more secure network, as it becomes increasingly difficult for any single entity to control the majority of the computational power. It also enhances the network's resistance to attacks and ensures the smooth functioning of transactions.
Bitcoin's hashrate has recently achieved new highs, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency's network security and mining efficiency.
Bitcoin Hashrate Hits All-Time High“After the halving, there was a noticeable decrease in hashrate, but with the replacement and upgrading of existing mining equipment, the hashrate began to trend upwards starting in July.” – By @DanCoinInvestor Link 👇… pic.twitter.com/tUDkCHrzDP
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 22, 2024
According to a new CryptoQuant report, this increase in hashrate comes after a drop following the latest Bitcoin halving event.
2024 halving effect
In the three months leading up to the fourth halving in April 2024, the price of Bitcoin experienced one of its largest bull runs in history. During this period, Bitcoin surged by 180%, reaching an all-time high of $71,000, a remarkable milestone since the beginning of the year.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggested in December that the forthcoming Bitcoin halving could fuel an extended period of bullish trends for the leading digital asset.
#Bitcoin design around four-year cycles, driven by its #halving events, often mirrors its price action. Historically, this translates to 3 years of bullish trends followed by 1 year of bearish correction. As per this cycle, $BTC is in an upward phase, potentially extending… pic.twitter.com/7B4sIpiWH8
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 29, 2023
The previous halving occurred in May 2020, reducing block rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, a level that remained until the fourth halving in April 2024. In the six months leading up to the 2020 halving, Bitcoin surged by 300% in price, following a trend similar to previous halving cycles.
Since Bitcoin's inception, there have been four halving events, with the latest occurring April 19, 2024.
Date
Price 1 month prior
Price 1 month after
Nov. 28, 2012
$10.26
$13.42
July 9, 2016
$583.11
$597.5
May 11, 2020
$6,909.95
$9,850
April 21. 2024$67,911$70,135
However, just before the 2020 halving, Bitcoin experienced a major market crash on March 11, 2020. The price plummeted from $7,944.05 to $4,857.31, marking a significant 38.85% decline.
Bitcoin has defied bearish market conditions, showcasing remarkable resilience and evolution over the past year. Despite challenges, it has surged in on-chain activity, strengthened its market structure and emphasized its scarcity, challenging outdated perceptions and emerging stronger than ever.
Is BTC risk-off asset?
In the banking sector, a risk asset is one whose value may fluctuate due to changes in interest rates, credit quality, repayment risk and other factors.
In a risk-on environment, investors venture further along the risk spectrum, with stocks typically outperforming "safer" assets like bonds. They seek substantial rewards from risks they deem worthwhile in a growing market environment.
Ark Investhighlights Bitcoin as a groundbreaking monetary system combining financial sovereignty, transparency and minimized counterparty risk. As the first decentralized, global, rules-based digital monetary system, Bitcoin reduces systemic risks inherent in traditional finance, which depends on centralized intermediaries and human intervention.
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Ark views Bitcoin as the purest form of money ever created, defined by its unique qualities:
Digital and akin to a commodity.Scarce, liquid, divisible, portable, transferable and fungible.Fully auditable and transparent.Custodiable without liability or counterparty risk.
Bitcoin has previously demonstrated safe-haven qualities, notably outperforming during the regional banking crisis in early 2023. However, its status as a reliable long-term asset remains debated due to its relatively short history and extreme volatility, which appeals to short-term traders, according to Ark Invest.
The surge in Bitcoin is driven by both retail and institutional investors, with U.K. pension funds and asset managers exploring crypto exposure. BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has already amassed billions in assets, highlighting growing mainstream adoption.
Bitcoin ETFs: Record-high inflows
The ETF’s record-breaking growth underscores Bitcoin's rising legitimacy as an asset class, signaling unprecedented mainstream acceptance. Recently, Bitcoin ETFs havesurpassed $90 billion in total assets.
This institutional momentum, led by a traditional finance giant like BlackRock, could fuel further Bitcoin price appreciation and solidify its role in a maturing market.
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has recently achieved a historic milestone, amassing $40 billion in assets within just 211 days — nearly six times faster than any previous ETF record. This success has catapulted the ETF into the top 1% by asset size and even surpassed BlackRock's own Gold ETF, reflecting a seismic shift in institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
The outlook for Bitcoin ETFs appears highly promising, with expectations of a potential doubling in capital inflows by 2025. Institutional investment and evolving regulatory frameworks are anticipated to play pivotal roles in attracting new participants to the market, significantly expanding the crypto ETF landscape.
I get asked a lot on intvs whether all Ten btc ETFs will survive and the answer is 100% yes they will all be here in a year. Even the least in aum, $BTCW, has a healthy $74m. Out of the 108 ETFs launched in 2024 so far it ranks 16th. (top 15%). That's how insane all this is. pic.twitter.com/ZVQ5ho3u2C
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 13, 2024
Market analysts predict that this confluence of regulatory support and institutional adoption, combined with the post-halving bullish phase, could drive the crypto market to its peak in late summer or early fall 2025. Historically, Bitcoin’s bullish cycles extend approximately 500 days after each halving, suggesting a sustained upward trend through much of 2025.
Michael Saylor's BTC strategy: USD to Bitcoin
In 2020, Saylor made the strategic decision to protect against currency debasement by investing MicroStrategy's spare cash into Bitcoin. Around that time, MicroStrategy raised $3.4 billion through various financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin, totaling $4 billion in purchases at increasing prices.
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MicroStrategy’s strategy of raising funds through debt and equity to buy Bitcoin has turned its holdings, purchased at an average of $40,000 per Bitcoin, into a $24 billion treasure at current prices near $100,000.
MicroStrategy’s market capitalization surged to an all-time high of $97.50 billion on Nov. 20, propelling the company beyond industry giants like Dell and Spotify. Once relatively unknown, MicroStrategy now stands poised to overtake Intel, which currently holds a valuation of $103.3 billion, according to the latest data.
MicroStrategy recently made headlines with a record-breaking $4.6 billion Bitcoin purchase, bringing its total holdings to $31.2 billion. To meet strong investor demand, the company also increased its convertible note offering to $2.6 billion, underscoring its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
The company’s stock has surged 445% this year, benefiting from Bitcoin's rise to over $91,000. With an average acquisition cost of $49,874 per coin, MicroStrategy has invested $16.5 billion in Bitcoin since 2020, using strategies like issuing 13.6 million shares to fund recent purchases.
The company has recently acquired 51,780 BTC for $4.6 billion, raising its total holdings to 331,200 BTC, worth $30 billion. While impressive, this is still less than BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds 471,329 BTC.
MicroStrategy positions Bitcoin as a core reserve asset and inflation hedge, inspiring similar moves by other companies like Marathon Digital and Semler Scientific.
If we draw a parallel between crypto markets and traditional resource industries, where the stock performance of sector companies often precedes changes in raw material prices, the recent behavior of MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares might provide valuable insights into Bitcoin's potential trajectory.
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Historically, the correlation between MSTR and Bitcoin has been strikingly strong, as one would expect given MicroStrategy's substantial Bitcoin holdings.
However, a noticeable divergence has emerged since early October. MSTR's price broke out of a consolidation phase and surged an additional 50%, while Bitcoin's price continues to hover at the upper boundary of a similar consolidation pattern.
One possible explanation is that the market may be hesitating to make decisive moves on Bitcoin.
Ark Invest bets on Bitcoin: Price prediction 2030
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expressed optimism about Bitcoin's ongoing bull market, citing on-chain analytics and broader market analysis as evidence of its strong position.
She reaffirmed her optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, predicting a base price of $650,000 by 2030, with the possibility of reaching as high as $1.5 million under more favorable circumstances.
She highlighted that following Bitcoin's halving event in April, the cryptocurrency's supply growth rate dropped to 0.9%. This marks a significant milestone, as it now falls below the long-term supply growth rate of gold for the first time, further reinforcing Bitcoin's appeal as a scarce and valuable asset in the eyes of investors.
According todata from ARK Invest, Bitcoin's price as of Nov. 13, 2024, was 1.33 times higher than its previous cycle peak of $67,589 on Nov. 8, 2021.
Notably, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown during the 2022 bear market was 76.9%, which is a smaller decline compared to previous cycle drops of 86.3% in 2018, 85.1% in 2015 and 93.5% in 2011.
How high will Bitcoin go?
Since the last cycle low, Bitcoin's price has increased 5.72 times, closely mirroring the 5.18x and 5.93x growth seen at equivalent points in the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, respectively.
If Bitcoin continues to follow the average trajectory of these two cycles, its price could potentially increase 15.4 times to around $243,000 during the next year, approximately 880 days after the November 2021 cycle low.
While this multiple exceeded the 2.06x average across all years sampled from 2011 to 2023 and the 2.04x average for halving years such as 2012, 2016 and 2020, it lagged behind some of the highest annual returns in prior cycles.
As of November, Bitcoin’s performance outpaced historical averages, and projections suggest that if it aligns with past trends, its price could range between $104,000 and $124,000 by the end of 2024, resulting in performance multiples of 2.48x to 2.94x.
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With institutional adoption gaining traction and discussions around the U.S. government potentially adding Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, a strong close to 2024 is anticipated, setting the stage for sustained momentum into 2025.
Crypto analysts are mostly bullish on Bitcoin. Peter Brandt predicts BTC price to climb as high as $135,000 in 2025.
Here is the macro picture of Bitcoin $BTCObservations:-Huge gains come in post-half of halving cycles-Period since Mar 2024 appears as insignificant, brief pause in ongoing trend-My target is $135,000 in Aug/Sep 2025-Close below $48K negates my chart analysis pic.twitter.com/niptj2Umu7
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 9, 2024
Seasoned investor Ari Paulestimates the potential growth to $125,000 during this cycle.
In a Bitcoinreport released on Nov. 21, VanEck analysts projected that the next crypto bull market is "just beginning." They cited a more favorable regulatory landscape in the U.S. and increasing institutional adoption as key factors that could propel Bitcoin (BTC) to $180,000 within the next 18 months.
Nations will adopt #Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset.pic.twitter.com/bWOgCTpvJN
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) November 8, 2024
Several factors could drive Bitcoin’s continued ascent, including the anticipated deregulation in the U.S. Additionally, further reductions in the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate could create a more favorable environment for speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Another factor is the increasing institutional adoption, with fresh capital flowing into crypto-focused ETFs. Seasonal trends, such as the market's typical December rally, might also contribute to Bitcoin and broader crypto sector gains as they outpace traditional indices.
It’s important, however, to remember that every bull run has its ups and downs. As highlighted by Peter Brandt, a major correction can take place in spring 2025.
