Your outline seems to describe a speculative cycle in cryptocurrency markets, moving through stages of hype, participation, and corrections. Here's a breakdown of how it makes sense:
1. Bitcoin Runs
Bitcoin often leads the charge in crypto market cycles, as it is the most established and widely recognized cryptocurrency. A strong rally in Bitcoin typically attracts broader market attention.
2. Memecoins Join
When Bitcoin gains momentum, speculative investments tend to follow. Memecoins, known for their hype-driven popularity rather than fundamental value, often rally next due to retail enthusiasm and FOMO (fear of missing out).
3. Altcoins Join
As the market cycle matures, attention shifts to altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin), which may benefit from narratives like innovation, utility, or upcoming technological developments.
First Large Flush (110-120?)
Speculative bubbles often experience corrections as early entrants take profits. This "flush" removes excess leverage and resets the market, typically measured in percentage drawdowns.
4. Mania Continues (Until Christmas/Inauguration)
After the correction, renewed optimism may drive another leg up, creating a "mania phase" where irrational exuberance takes over, leading to skyrocketing prices and increased participation.
5. Moar, But Less Manic (Until Feb/March)
The rally may continue beyond the holiday season but with diminishing intensity as exhaustion sets in. Markets may still rise but with slower momentum as the pool of new participants dwindles.
6. Correction & Pain
The market eventually faces a larger correction as over-leveraged participants are flushed out. This stage is marked by significant price declines, bearish sentiment, and capitulation.
7. Moar, Even Less Manic
After the pain subsides, markets may recover, but the speculative fever is weaker. Growth may continue but at a more measured pace, as participants are now more cautious.
This framework makes sense if you're describing historical or cyclical patterns in crypto markets. However, remember that such cycles are highly speculative and influenced by external factors like macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and market psychology. Using caution and avoiding over-leverage is critical in such volatile markets.