The Markets' Assessment of Today's U.S. Presidential Election
Today, November 5, the U. S. presidential election begins, with more than 70 million Americans voting for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as the next president, and the markets are already assessing the results.
According to data obtained by Finbold, Trump is leading in the two most popular prediction markets at the time of publication. This scenario is clearly different from the traditional media polls we reported on this weekend.
In particular, on Polymarket, bets worth more than $2 billion suggest a 61.7 percent probability of victory for the Republican candidate. At the same time, Kalshi traders estimate the probability of Donald Trump's victory at 59%, and this figure is rising in both markets.
#Bitcoin is recovering after panic selling related to Mt Gox on Monday - what's next? The results of today's vote will be known in the coming days, which will determine the outcome of the election and the projected bets on the market. However, commodity, stock and #cryptocurrency markets are already analyzing this and other data to assess the outcome of the U. S. presidential election.
In general, experts, investors and analysts expect the market to assess Trump's victory as "bullish" and Harris' victory as "bearish.
According to Finbold, 40% of institutional investors plan to be cautious about stocks under the presidency of Kamala Harris. Legendary investor Warren Buffett is systematically getting rid of stocks in anticipation of the capital gains tax.
In commodities, Michael McGlone warns that gold's parabolic growth will be unsustainable under a Harris administration. The Bloomberg senior commodities strategist compared gold's performance to that of US Treasuries, which are expected to rise if the Democrats win.
Commenting on this, Michael A.
Gold, in particular, is trading 0.
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