Kalshi, a prediction market challenging Polymarket, has received a record $25 million in deposits less than a week after allowing bettors to use Circle’s stablecoin to help them place last-minute wagers on the US elections.
A “significant” portion of deposits were made in USDC over the last two days, according to Jack Such, a growth executive at Kalshi. The New York-based firm enabled stablecoin deposits on Monday.
“Instant deposits are a huge feature because a lot of people love betting on things right before they’re about to happen,” Such told DL News.
“It’s going to be a tight window if you’re depositing through ACH and even wire to bet on the election.”
Switch to dollars
Enabling crypto on Kalshi now puts it in fiercer competition with market leader Polymarket, which operates exclusively in USDC and is only available outside the United States.
Zero Hash, another crypto firm, handles the stablecoin deposits, which are instantly switched to dollars before entering the platform. Kalshi is only available to US residents.
Both platforms have taken centre stage in the run-up to the US elections this year.
Punters can bet on various topics, but the gamble du jour is whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will win the election.
Both platforms sell “yes” and “no” shares for presidential candidates. As buyers pile into shares, the price of that share rises and becomes the platform’s odds that a candidate will win.
$3 billion in volume
The idea is that with enough money on the line, odds on betting platforms will be better predictors of future events. Polymarket’s bet has seen nearly $3 billion in total cumulative volume, while Kalshi boasts just over $142 million. There’s $192 million in open orders on Polymarket’s election bid and $64 million on Kalshi.
Shares for Trump to win the election on Kalshi cost 57 cents, which gives him a 57% chance of winning. If he wins, the shares will shoot up to a dollar. Polymarket puts Trump’s odds of victory at 61%.
The difference between national polls and betting markets is considerable. Most national polls are showing Harris and Trump in a virtual tie.
Given the mainstream news attention on CNN, CNBC, and Bloomberg, Kalshi and Polymarket’s operations have come under closer scrutiny.
In October, one Polymarket trader was able to dramatically shift the odds in Trump’s favour with a $26 million bet.
The Polymarket bet will determine a winner once The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If that doesn’t happen, the market will resolve on January 20, 2025, when the new president is inaugurated.
Though Kalshi punters are rushing to place their bets, that market won’t resolve until inauguration day.
Liam Kelly is DL News Berlin-based DeFi Correspondent. Got a tip? Email at liam@dlnews.com.